News Item: Science Now Reports The Earth Is Cooling, Will Man Be Blamed For This As Well?
(Category: Misc)
Posted by Admin
Saturday 10 May 2008 - 10:21:20

Just a few months ago climate scientists were predicting record warming for 2008. But now NASA and several university studies show that the earth is cooling and that we have at least 20 years, and perhaps as much as 30 years, of colder than normal temperatures ahead of us. So where were the computer models on that one? The "Earth has a fever" crowd is surely gearing up to blame man-made global warming for cooling as well.No Longer Supported

"Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said. Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions." -- "Global warming may 'stop', scientists predict"
"Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade." -- the journal Nature
"the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years" - NASA
So what happened to the "The Science Is Settled" mantra? How can they one minute scream of dire near term consequences from global warming and the next minute put it on hold for 30 years? There is certainly nothing "settled" about that! There has already been no global warming for 10 years and science has had a very difficult time explaining why the planet has not warmed while CO2 has continued to rise. All of their computer models had predicted warming, not cooling. It is amazing how they're willing to blame cooling on nature but not warming, even when the same processes that will cause cooling can also cause warmer temperatures. Perhaps they're more willing to blame nature for cooling because they already tried blaming man for cooler temperatures in the 70's, which just happens to be the last time the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see below) went through a cooling cycle.

New studies show that a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation could bring up to 30 years of cooler temperatures (according to NASA). This cooling is on top of, and separate from, NASA predicted lower solar activity with Solar Cycle 25 (which is also predicted to bring cooling).

“The shift in the PDO can have significant implications on global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. “This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation ‘cool’ trend can intensify La Niña or diminish El Niño impacts around the Pacific basin” - NASA's Earth Observatory

Pacific Decadal Oscillation showing the cool and warm phases - NOAA
"The most recent warm phase began in 1977 and may have finished in 1999" - NOAA.

The global temperature did not rise above the anomaly line until 1979 and there has been no global warming (no temperature increases) since 1998 so the PDO explains "global warming" very well.

How could their computer models have missed all of this? How is the Al Gore / IPCC crowd going to explain missing it? The bigger question is how are they going to keep their believers following the global warming theory when they're suffering through years of cold temperatures? The backtracking and strategic planning has already begun. Being able to blame the PDO is actually quite convenient for the global warming crowd, for the next 20-30 years they can blame any cooling or lack of warming on the PDO and continue to sell their CO2 theory. You'll hear statements like "it will return with a vengeance" and "we'll wish we would have done something". Fear tactics designed to make us continue believing their unproven theories. They would probably prefer to have constant warming but the writing is on the wall for cooling from several directions (e.g. weak solar activity). For the last 10 years there has been no global warming and global temperatures have begun to fall, even without the influence of the PDO, so having something temporary to blame for the cooling is very important for keeping the theory of man-made warming alive. It is going to be very interesting to see if people will continue to believe in "global warming" when they're living through decades of cold.

Time series of shifts in sign of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), 1925 to 2006.
Red bars indicate positive (warm) years; blue bars negative (cool) years.
Graph Courtesy of NOAA

Temperature Anomaly Chart 1850-2007 - Image Courtesy of Wikipedia

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) warming and cooling cycles closely match the global temperatures of the past 120 years. Compare the PDO anomaly graph with the temperature anomaly graph above. The period 1939-1941 is a warm trend on both, 1945-1978 is cool on both, 1980 to present is warm on both. What is even more striking are the highest peaks, examine the non-averaged black line (blue dots) on the temperature anomaly chart and compare it with the PDO anomaly for 1941, 1950, 1955, 1998, and 2000. Another thing to make note of is the coldest anomaly temperature in 1861 was 0.6°C colder than normal, the warmest anomaly in 1998 was 0.55°C warmer than the average. Even though the warming peak and trends have been less dramatic than the cooling trends warming is blamed on man, cooling is not. It should be obvious that if the natural cycles of the ocean currents and solar cycles can cause 0.6°C of cooling than it can also cause that much warming. (Update: see 1900-Jan 2008 PDO Index Graph. The PDO clearly matches the latest cooling trend.)

The American Thinker has a theory about how the sky is falling global warming crowd will react to all of this and it is well worth considering. As the temperature drops you're going to see total desperation on the part of the Al Gore worshipers. It is going to be extremely hard to sell "global warming" to people that are freezing and seeing cool summers for the first time in decades. This will cause them to crank up the volume and make ever more dramatic proclamations.

"Mounting evidence of lower temperature trends despite rising atmospheric CO2 levels is becoming a real problem for the greenhouse gas crowd. And reports that the cooling appears to follow a period of dormant solar activity aren't likely to ease their anxieties. Indeed, without an immediate alarmist course correction, years of "the science is settled" campaigning could prove for naught, as prolonged temperature dips decimate the primary anthropogenic argument. After all, Lord Gore has shouted the IPCC's proclamation of a 0.3°C warming over the next decade from virtually every rooftop. Given new data projecting the contrary, he and his green hordes will need to find a way to not only explain the error, but keep the AGW dream alive."

"a model study on another phenomenon, this time affecting the North Atlantic, were published in the journal Nature. Dr Noel Keenlyside et al, of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Germany, reported that the "conveyor belt" of southern warm water known as the Meridional Overturning Circulation is entering a weak cycle. As weak MOC cycles -- which can last as many as 80 years -- are associated with cooler North Atlantic temperatures" -- The American Thinker
"During most of the 1980s and 1990s, the Pacific was locked in the oscillation's warm phase, during which these warm and cool regions are reversed." - NASA
In yet another example that science isn't ready for predicting long range climate comes this Science Daily story "New Ocean Current Discovered". This ocean current is separate from the PDO described above which has been shown to have a major affect on climate.
"Although the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation is part of a natural cycle of the climate system, we find evidence suggesting that its amplitude may increase as global warming progresses,” said Di Lorenzo.
Could it be that they have their cause and effect reversed? It certainly wouldn't be the first time. There is so much about the Earth's natural cycles that we don't understand that it is currently impossible to model future climate. Yet we're expected to pour trillions of dollars in to CO2 reduction.


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