News Item: If The Globe Is Warming Why Are The Oceans Not?
(Category: Editorials)
Posted by R.Danneskjöld
Wednesday 30 January 2008 - 21:29:31

You may hear environmental groups tell you that the Antarctic ice is melting, that polar bears are near extinction, or that the oceans are warming. If you believe that the earth is warming, and there might be some evidence to support that theory (though it is all natural), then its easy to believe those statements. But none of them are true.No Longer Supported

The first two statements have been covered here already and I won't repeat them other than to provide you links:
It does seem obvious that if the earth is warming (whether or not it is man-made or natural) that the oceans would be the best place to measure it. They aren't effected by the urban heat island effect, they aren't covered in concrete or hidden by tall buildings, and you don't have to worry about burn barrels and air conditioner exhaust near the monitoring device. You just want to make sure your measurements aren't thrown off by organic growth (near shore) and land run-off, that should be easy enough. The oceans also comprise over 70% of the earth's surface so if there is "global" warming it should be easy to spot in long term measurements of ocean surface temperatures.

But when you look at the 30 year National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data there is no statistically significant warming. The following chart produced by using NOAA data (with the address to the raw NOAA data) clearly shows this along with the increasing CO2 levels:

Click on Image to Enlarge

The School of Oceanography at the University of Washington undertook a comprehensive study of the earth's recent ocean surface temperatures (with funding from NOAA) and came up with equally surprising results.

“The ocean neither cooled nor warmed systematically over the large parts of the ocean for the entire analysis period.” -- School of Oceanography at the Univ of Washington funded by NOAA. See the following World Climate Report article
“there is large spatial variability of 51-yr trends in the upper ocean, with some regions showing cooling in excess of 3°C, and others warming of similar magnitude. Some 95% of the ocean area analyzed has both cooled and warmed over 20-yr subsets of this period” -- Abstract from "Is the world ocean warming? Upper-ocean temperature trends: 1950-2000". Journal of Physical Oceanograph
The "analysis period" was from 1950-2000 when most of the earth's warming was suppose to have occurred and during a time of increasing CO2 levels. If there has been any "global" climate change during the past 58 years (temperatures have been remarkably stable since 1998) the oceans missed out on it. From the World Climate Report article discussing this study “you cannot help but notice cooling in all five graphs for the 1980-1999 time periods”, this was during a period where the IPCC tells us there should have been significant warming.

Environmentalists love to quote NOAA, NASA and university studies when the data appears to be on their side of an issue. But when studies or news comes out that doesn't validate their "feelings" about global warming they ignore it or attack it. Perhaps all of the misplaced NOAA weather monitoring stations do show warming due to burn barrels, air conditioner exhaust, new blacktop parking lots, etc. or perhaps they have greatly underestimated the urban heat island effect (especially as cities grow rapidly). The good people over at routinely find errors in NASA and NOAA data, including one that caused NASA to reclassify the warmest year on record being 1934 not 1998 for the United States because of a Y2K bug! If the U.S. data is that susceptible to error, especially considering the amount of scrutiny it receives, the rest of the world's data must be at least as bad. When only the largest cities are excluded from averages the U.S. temperature for the past 60 years has actually fallen! Consider the heat island effect in large fast growing cities in countries such as India, Pakistan, Mexico, Russia and former Soviet block nations, the trapped warm heat extends for miles around the cities and can change the temperature dramatically. These cities are all included in "global" temperature averages which have shown increases over the years. Perhaps the oceans are trying to tell us something and the earth isn't really warming after all. But if the scientists can't figure out if we're actually warming or not how are they ever going to see decisively if man is causing it?

The earth is cooler now than at anytime in 450,000 years and I look forward to the day when I can sail over the arctic like my ancestors.

-- Ragnar Danneskjöld
Pirating for Freedom

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