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Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group

» Roger Pielke Sr. is now on Twitter!

» 2012 Climate Science Weblog in Review by Dallas Jean Staley – A Guest Post

» The Weblog Is Retiring

» Publication Of “Reply to “Comment On ‘Ocean Heat Content And Earth’s Radiation Imbalance. II. Relation To Climate Shifts’ ” by Nuccitelli Et Al. By Douglass and Knox 2012

» Q&A From A Group Of Retired NASA Personnel And Associates

» The Importance of Land Use/Land Practices On Climate – A Perspective From Jon Foley

» Interview With James Wynn In The English Department At Carnegie Mellon University

» University Of Alabama At Huntsville October 2012 Lower Tropospheric Temperature Analysis

» USA Election Day 2012

» New Paper “Climatic Variability Over Time Scales Spanning Nine Orders of Magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch Cycles With Hurst–Kolmogorov Dynamics” By Markonis And Koutsoyiannis


» Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

» Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my article commenting on his Nature paper

» Polar Bears, Inadequate data and Statistical Lipstick

» Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

» US East Coast Sea Level Rise: An Adjustocene Hockey Stick

» New Antarctic Temperature Reconstruction

» Reconciling Model-Observation Reconciliations

» Part 2- The TV5 Monde Hack and APT28

» From Nigerian Scams to DNC Hack Attribution – Part 1

» Guccifer 2: From January to May, 2016



Global Warming News

» Leaked Clean Power Plan Repeal Proposal

» Documents Pertinent to the Nomination of Jeffrey Bossert Clark for AAG DOJ ENRD

» SJW-day at COP22

» Clean Power Plan: EPA’s Updated Base Case Now Tallies with EIA Data

» Clean Power Plan Oral Argument Transcript Available Here!

» President Obama and Chinese President Xi will officially join the Paris Climate Treaty on 3rd September

» South China Morning Post reports: China and US to ratify landmark Paris climate deal ahead of G20 summit, sources reveal

» Posting: Little-Known Documents Pertinent to Assessing the Legality of EPA’s Clean Energy Incentive Program

» Kyoto-Financed Cook Stoves Fail as Health/Climate “Intervention”

» CEQ Finalizes NEPA Guidance for Greenhouse Gases: Will Pointless Keystone XL Controversy Become ‘New Normal’?








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“The Arctic is screaming”, so says U.S. government scientist
Admin, Saturday 15 December 2007 - 23:27:34 // comment: 14 //     printer friendly   //     Font Size - Increase / Decrease / Reset

It should be the public screaming - at the scientists. The latest study shows that Arctic ice volume has fallen by 50% in the last 4 years. For years scientists have told us to trust their computer models. Funny how none of those models predicted this rapid melting. Even their worst case scenarios haven't shown anything near this amount of ice loss. Nor did the models predict the record ice gains at the antarctic. If they don't have a handle on normal climate variation how can they hope to predict far in to the future.No Longer Supported
The subtitle of this article should be “When our models fail trust our rhetoric”. We all know that the level of global warming rhetoric his risen to new record highs. But it is truly sad to see scientists ignoring their own research while telling us to have faith in it. One minute they tell us to trust their climate computer models and the next minute they apparently want us to ignore them. Even though the computer models are failing they want world leaders to spend trillions of dollars on what the models predict will happen in the future.

Even more amazing is that our popular mass-media is playing up the Arctic ice reduction like its man's fault. True climate researchers (even IPCC researchers) will tell you that there is no possible way that anything man has done to date has even remotely contributed to this amount of ice loss. Their own worst case predictions didn't see this coming for another 100 years. Of course even those predictions are highly suspect. In years past scientists treated their models with natural skepticism, that was before the media gave them a big head. Suddenly, thanks to Al Gore and the like, the media was saying there was no time left, the earth was going to come to end unless we acted now. The environmentalists, media, politicians, public, even school kids were all yelling at the scientists to do something about global warming before it was too late. So the scientists soon lost objectivity. A classic case of mass-hysteria set in and scientists started believing not only in poor research but in rumor, myth and lies. No one wanted to look like they were obstructing progress in "saving the planet". For the first time since World War II scientists were seen as our only hope, our heroes.

It would seem that the public no longer has anyone to turn to for trustworthy information. They certainly can not believe our politicians (or former vice presidents), religion asks you to have “faith” in what they say, most of our coworkers are idiots, the media spins things for ratings, etc. Now many of our scientists are addicted to the feeding trough of grant money and elbow rubbing. Looking back on history this is not really new. But in the past the grants were often related to national security and defense research. Having scientists “sell out” still meant they worked in the interest of defending their country. Today it means they're squandering their time and our money on meaningless research that will have little public benefit (such as studying famous art in the name of climate research).

Even if you are inclined to believe in computer climate models perhaps you are unaware that there isn't one model that the consensus of scientists believe in. There are literally thousands of models and millions of variable combinations. No two models or combinations of variables fed in to the models come up with the same answer. Some of models predict dramatic cooling of the planet even over the next 100 years. The problem with models is that there is no way to calibrate them without a complete understanding of all the (thousands of) variables that get fed in to the model and how they affect each other. So scientists have to guess (agh... make educated decisions) of how variables affect each other in the atmosphere (not in the lab), not one guess but thousands of them. Then they have to run the models over simulated time periods of thousands of years with different combinations of inputs. One run may change the CO2 amount released by man, the next run may vary how efficient the ocean is at soaking up CO2, the next run may vary how efficient forests are at sequestering CO2, the next run may vary how much affect volcanic eruption activity will have, varying levels of atmospheric methane, etc. etc. These are just the basic variables there are thousands more, each with a different affect on the climate. Our understanding of how most of these affect the climate is very, very poor. We don't even know how increased levels of CO2 affect it. In the lab scientists will tell you that CO2 increases the greenhouse affect and causes global warming. But ice core samples and other temperature proxies show that over geological history warming comes first (by 800-1500 years) and then CO2 levels increase. See and here for much more information on this subject. Yet the majority of the climate models continue to assume that CO2 causes warming, rather than the other way around.

“'s clear that water vapour is the single most important absorber (between 36% and 66% of the greenhouse effect), and together with clouds makes up between 66% and 85%. CO2 alone makes up between 9 and 26%, while the O3 and the other minorGHG absorbers consist of up to 7 and 8% of the effect, respectively. The remainders and uncertainties are associated with the overlaps which could be attributed in various ways that I'm not going to bother with here. Making some allowance (+/-5%) for the crudeness of my calculation, the maximum supportable number for the importance of water vapour alone is about 60-70% and for water plus clouds 80-90% of the present day greenhouse effect.” “Climate science from climate scientists”
Look at the ranges for water vapor and clouds above. The combination of the two account for 80-90% of the present greenhouse effect. Don't they think that 10% range maybe meaningful? Especially since according to U.S. Dept. of Energy data the total human greenhouse gas contributions add up to about 0.28% of the greenhouse effect!

“There is no dispute at all about the fact that even if punctiliously observed, (the Kyoto Protocol) would have an imperceptible effect on future temperatures -- one-twentieth of a degree by 2050.” -- Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service
There are many universities and several government agencies all running various climate computer models. There are even projects that use thousands of home computers, here is the aim of one of those:

“The aim of is to investigate the approximations that have to be made in state-of-the-art climate models. By running the model thousands of times (a 'large ensemble') we hope to find out how the model responds to slight tweaks to these approximations.”
When reading forums at these sites you'll see people bragging about how “warm” their dataset was, or asking how it could be possible that their results came back so “cold” (they sound very disappointed). Strange how quotes like this one never make the evening news “It seems like all my newly downloaded models are colder than average.” But its pretty obvious that the vast majority of the participants in this scientific research are biased towards believing in man-made global warming.

At we believe in science, totally. But not necessarily in all scientists. The science needs to be non-biased and not faith based. Double-blind studies are not possible in climate studies like they are in the medical field (where they would never jump to such serious conclusions based simply on computer models). So research needs to not only pass the smell test but it has to pass the test of history. If natural climate cycles have caused these changes to occur before man's influence and other evidence points to natural causes then you have a very high hurtle to prove that man is causing climate change this time.

“The surface area of summer sea ice floating in the Arctic Ocean this summer was nearly 23 percent below the previous record.”
So should we be worried? NO! This so called “record” only extends back to 1979 when satellite monitoring started. In geological terms this is a meaningless statistical blip. If we had records back to the turn of the 20th century we would find that this year is not unusual. If we had records dating back a few thousand years (still insignificant on a geologic scale) we would find this to be very common. But it has occurred in the past 100 years:

“The thickness of the ice forming annually in the North Polar Sea has diminished from an average of 365 centimeters at the time of Nansen’s Fram expedition of 1893-96 to 218 centimeters during the drift of the Russian icebreaker Sedov in 1937-40. The extent of drift ice in Arctic waters has also diminished considerably in the last decades. According to information received in the U.S.S.R. in 1945, the area of drift ice in the Russian sector of the Arctic was reduced by no less than 1,000,000 square kilometers between 1924 and 1944. The shipping season in West Spitsbergen has lengthened from three months at the beginning of this century to about seven months at the beginning of the 1940s. The Northern Sea Route, the North-East Passage, could never have been put into regular usage if the ice conditions in recent years had been as difficult as they were during the first decades of this century.” -- Dr. Hans Ahlmann, 1952 as quoted at World Climate Report and Here
“It appears that, step by step, the tundra is advancing into the arctic desert, and the taiga is moving into the tundra. In line with plants, the mammals and birds are moving northward too. The prime cause of this race is the warming of the Arctic. The temperature data compiled by Vizes and others show that the warming trend has become clearly pronounced since the 1920’s in the arctic belt from Iceland and Spitsbergen to Taymyr and Severnaya Zemlya. The average difference in temperature between the beginning of this century and the 1950’s is about 7 deg. C. for winter, 5 deg. C. for autumn, and only about 1 deg. C. for the spring and summer.” -- 1968 article in the journal Arctic as reported at World Climate Report
  • AP - Ominous Arctic Melt Worries Experts - "The Arctic is screaming," said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government's snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colo.
  • – Arctic Region Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies 1880 - 12/2004
  • Global Warming - A Closer Look at the Numbers - Shows the effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases inperspective.
  • Wikipedia Image:Vostok-ice-core - Ice Core chart clearly showing CO2 levels lagging rising temperatures
  • Report: CO2 Not Responsible for Past Warming - The research team, led by Paleoclimatologist Lowell Stott, demonstrated CO2 levels after the last Ice Age started to rise some 1,300 years after the warming began. According to Stott, earlier researchers had cause and effect reversed -- CO2 increases were the result of warming, and not the original cause. Stott's paper is not the first to show CO2 rises followed warming trends, but it is one of the most detailed and thorough rebuttals of the linkage.

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