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Science and Public Policy Institute

» Mammals in a C02-Enriched and Warmer World

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» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Bivalves

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» Observed Climate Change and the Negligible Global Effect of Greenhouse-gas Emission Limits in the State of Utah

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» Onward Marches the Great Pause

» Response of Various Marine Animals to Ocean Acidification and Warming

» FACE Experiments and Grassland Species

» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Fish

» Response of Fish to Ocean Warming

» Additional Grounds for Rejecting Biofuels

» The Global Medieval Warm Period

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Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group

» Roger Pielke Sr. is now on Twitter!

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» Publication Of “Reply to “Comment On ‘Ocean Heat Content And Earth’s Radiation Imbalance. II. Relation To Climate Shifts’ ” by Nuccitelli Et Al. By Douglass and Knox 2012

» Q&A From A Group Of Retired NASA Personnel And Associates

» The Importance of Land Use/Land Practices On Climate – A Perspective From Jon Foley

» Interview With James Wynn In The English Department At Carnegie Mellon University

» University Of Alabama At Huntsville October 2012 Lower Tropospheric Temperature Analysis

» USA Election Day 2012

» New Paper “Climatic Variability Over Time Scales Spanning Nine Orders of Magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch Cycles With Hurst–Kolmogorov Dynamics” By Markonis And Koutsoyiannis

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» Scientific American article: “How to Misinterpret Climate Change Research”

» Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 3

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» Rahmstorf’s Third Trick

» Rahmstorf’s Second Trick

» Rahmstorf’s First Trick

» Jones and Dixon Refute Conspiracy Theorist Lewandowsky

» Reductio ad mannium

» How Weaver Ignored Corcoran’s Segue

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Watts Up With That?

» NOAA Forecast: A below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year

» EPA Busted for Ideology

» Another advance in hearing restoration

» The green plan to make Capitalism cruel

» Claim: ‘Severe ozone depletion avoided ‘

» ‘[EPA] regulations in the study are less likely to have economic benefits in excess of their costs.’

» The Role of Sulfur Dioxide Aerosols in Climate Change

» Climate change debate fueled by ‘echo chambers,’ new study claims

» Claim: New Chinese nuclear plants are unsafe

» Out At The Boundaries

» How to Influence Climate Change Public Policy

» Tommorrowland – the only Clooney movie I’ll probably never see

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Global Warming News

» EU Climate Policy: Unsustainability Update

» Tom Steyer’s Windfall Profits Tax: Recyling Junk Policy

» Ethanol Industry Ad Campaign: Fuels America or Fools America?

» Is Ethanol a Green Fuel?

» Independent Satellite Records Agree: Little to No Global Warming over Past 18 Years

» Clean Power Plan “Co-Benefits” Are as Insipid as the Rule’s Direct Benefits (i.e., the idiotic social cost of carbon)

» Clean Power Plan Litigation: Thoughts on Ripeness and Standing

» Forgotten Document Sheds New Light on Legality of EPA Climate Rules

» EPA Administrator McCarthy: A “Carbon Conscious Economy” Is Inevitable, and EPA Will Make Sure It Happens

» The Unbearable Lightness of Obama’s *Passion* for Mitigating AGW

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Fox News - Climate Change Stories

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Michelle Malkin - Enviro-Nitwits

» Obama: U.S. not losing to ISIS, but definitely getting pushed around by ‘climate change’

» Gore / great lakes

» Cher’d sacrifice: They don’t call ’em ‘green’ Hollywood libs for nothing

» Bernie Sanders stumbles upon first campaign slogan: No car in every garage

» Double dribblers at OFA toss up embarrassing desperation shot on ‘climate change’

***
DailyTech Michael Asher`s blog

» Will the Real Antarctica Please Stand Up?

» Global Warming May Decrease Hurricanes, Research Suggests

» Japanese Report Disputes Human Cause for Global Warming

» Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979

» A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the (Climate) Forum

» Climate Report Downgrades Ice Loss; Media Reports Opposite

» Princeton Physicist Calls Global Warming Science "Mistaken"

» Defying Predictions, Sea Level Rise Begins to Slow

» Electric Car Sales in Freefall; Industry Risks Collapse

» Glaciers in Norway Growing Again

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C3 - Climate Cycles Change

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CATO - Global Warming

» Wall Street Offers Very Real Benefits

» A So-So Republican Budget

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» Venezuela: No Rule of Law, Bad Money

» The 4 Percent-Plus Solution

» African Dawn Needs the Rule of Law

» 'Should We Have Waged the Iraq War?' Is Not a Gotcha Question

» Washington's Free-Riding East Asian Allies

» Memo to Congress: Don't Do Something, Just Stand There

» Cuomo's Dangerous Wage-Board Play Will Hurt the Workers He Says He Wants to Help

» Sen. Paul's Great Surveillance 'Filibuster' and What to Expect Next

» The Glaring (Ir)Relevance of Ramadi

» If You Don't Want Your Food Genetically Modified, Tell Nature to Stop It.

» Currency Manipulation Can't be Fixed by Countervailing Duties

» An Open Letter to Governor Hogan: the New Metro Lines Are Too Expensive

» Don't Confuse Tax Credits with School Vouchers

» U.S. Monetary Policy: a Ship with a Broken Rudder

» Assessing the GOP Candidates' Plans on Poverty

» Hank Greenberg's AIG Case Might Not be Open and Shut

» The Pentagon Conned Washington … Again

» Amtrak Is No Way to Run a Railroad

» How am I Supposed to Learn Anything without a Lazy River and Wet Wall?

» Politicians Love Ribbon-Cutting

» The Increasingly Elusive Climate Consensus

» Put Harriet Tubman on the $20 Bill

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CanadaFreePress - Global Warming

» Catholic Group Exposes Red Influence in the Vatican

» Barack “Climate Change” Obama

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NASA Revises Temperature Data - 1930's warmest on record!
Admin, Thursday 09 August 2007 - 20:06:13 // comment: 25 //     printer friendly   //     Font Size - Increase / Decrease / Reset

In a stunning turn of events data (quietly) released by NASA shows that the 4 warmest years ever recorded occurred in the 1930's, with the warmest year on record being 1934 (not 1998). Lets see if Al Gore revises his road show. Update - Global Warming is actually a Y2K bug!No Longer Supported
Data discovered on NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) website revises recorded temperatures for the United States. It is expected that similar revisions will also be made for global temperature recordings. This information was discovered by Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit on Wednesday (8/8/2007). No NASA press release, no James Hansen (head of GISS) announcement, nothing. Could it be because they don't want anyone to see it? The data is certainly devastating for the Al Gore camp which has based much of their Carbon Credits sales pitch on recent temperatures (e.g. claiming that 1998 was the warmest on record).

Other aspects of the data are just as stunning.
  • Only 4 of the top 10 warmest years occurred in the past 10 years (1998, 1999, 2006)
  • Out of the top 10 warmest years half occurred before 1940
  • The years 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2004 were cooler than the year 1900
  • 1996, just two years before what Al Gore called the hottest year in the history of the planet, was actually cooler than average.
  • 1921 was the third warmest year in recorded history (behind 1934 and 1998).


We're almost back to the 1970's theory of global cooling! The data clearly changes things.

Had we been living in 1934 we would have heard the same claims of global warming, this is the evidence that we would have heard at the time:
  • 8 of the past 10 years had been above average.
  • 1934 was the warmest year ever recorded. The warmest in over 54 years!


Shift that to 1944 and you would have seen that 17 of the past 21 years had been warmer than average. It is obvious that in just the past 125 years there have been other periods just as warm, or warmer, than what we are now experiencing. If we could look at the past 1,000 years with the accuracy of the past 100 years we would most likely find that this is not unusual at all.

Update: Turns out this NASA data was revised because of a Y2K bug in the algorithm used to adjust measurement station raw data. Blogger Finds Y2K Bug in NASA Climate Data. NASA's James Hansen has refused to release his algorithms but they were reverse engineered by Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit and NASA has since updated their data (so you know he Steve got it right). What this author finds truly disturbing (and disgusting) is that NASA would keep these algorithms secret. This is public information. Steve really should file a Freedom of Information (FOIA) request to obtain this and what ever else he needs. NASA would be very hard pressed to justify withholding that information. These events seriously call in to question anything James Hansen has touched, supervised, or managed. Not just because he got the math wrong but because he also hides his methods. He is apparently attempting to establish a new religion by requiring people to have faith in his data.

References:

As one blogger said "1998 had El Nino and 367ppmv CO2. What did 1934 have?", was 1934 mans fault too?

Climate Audit is being hit by either too much traffic or a Distributed Denial of Service Attack (they aren't sure which at this point). Below are the two blog posts that started it all.


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==== CLIMATE AUDIT'S August 8th, 2007 POST =====

A New Leaderboard at the U.S. Open
By Steve McIntyre

A little unexpectedly, 1998 had a late bogey and 1934 had a late birdie. (I thought that they were both in the clubhouse since the turmoil seemed to be in the 2000s.) In any event, the new leader atop the U.S. Open is 1934.

2006 had a couple of late bogeys and fell to 4th place, behind even 1921. I think that there’s a little air in the 2006 numbers even within GISS procedures as the other post-2000 lost about 0.15 strokes through late bogeys, while it lost only 0.10 strokes. It is faltering and it might yet fall behind 1931 into 5th place.

Four of the top 10 are now from the 1930s: 1934, 1931, 1938 and 1939, while only 3 of the top 10 are from the last 10 years (1998, 2006, 1999). Several years (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004) fell well down the leaderboard, behind even 1900. (World rankings are calculated separately.) Note: For the new leaderboard see . The old data has been erased; by sheer chance, I had the old data active in my R-session but I can’t give a link to it.)

GISS U.S. Temperatures (deg C) in New Order

YearOldNew
19341.231.25
19981.241.23
19211.121.15
20061.231.13
19311.081.08
19990.940.93
19530.910.90
19900.880.87
19380.850.86
19390.840.85

Here’s the old leaderboard.

YearOldNew
19981.241.23
19341.231.25
20061.231.13
19211.121.15
19311.081.08
19990.940.93
19530.910.90
20010.900.76
19900.880.87
19380.850.86
==== END OF POST ====


==== CLIMATE AUDIT'S August 7th, 2007 POST =====

Will the Real USHCN Data Set Please Stand Up?
By Steve McIntyre

The GISS homepage formerly said:

The NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) provides a measure of the changing global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was established. Input data for the analysis, collected by many national meteorological services around the world, is the unadjusted data of the Global Historical Climatology Network (Peterson and Vose, 1997 and 1998) except that the USHCN station records included were replaced by a later corrected version.


In econometrics, you couldn’t use loosy-goosy phrases like “replaced by a later corrected version.” You’d have to identify the version. Actually AGU policies (which apply to JGR) require proper data citation, although climate scientists publishing in AGU journals flout this policy, including Hansen here. Following an email to Hansen and Ruedy of GISS, they changed the introduction at the GISTEMP intro from:to the following:

Input data for the analysis, collected by many national meteorological services around the world, is the unadjusted data of the Global Historical Climatology Network (Peterson and Vose, 1997 and 1998) except that the USHCN station records up to 1999 were replaced by a version of USHCN data with further corrections after an adjustment computed by comparing the common 1990-1999 period of the two data sets. (We wish to thank Stephen McIntyre for bringing to our attention that such an adjustment is necessary to prevent creating an artificial jump in year 2000.)


This doesn’t really clarify the provenance of the data. In his email, Ruedy added:

In 2000, USHCN provided us with a file with corrections not contained in the GHCN data. Unlike the GHCN data, that product is not kept current on a regular basis. Hence we used (as you noticed) the GHCN data to extend those data in our further updates (2000-present)


Well, I hadn’t really “noticed” that they had used GHCN data to extend the USHCN data. I’ve done lots of cross-comparisons with different variations trying to identify exactly where the GHCN raw data came from. I’ve put up many plots at CA showing GISS raw as compared to different USHCN versions and I’ve done many more that I’ve not posted up. At his point, there’s one thing that we can say for sure: I’ve now looked at GISS raw as compared to GHCN raw data in the post-2000 period and in the few sites that I’ve examined since receiving this email (Detroit Lakes, Port Angeles), there is an exact match. So at least we’ve tracked down one aspect of the provenance of GISS raw data. I’ve done a comparison plot below for Detroit Lakes MN, a series that we’ve looked at before. After 2000, the match is exact (the delta is 0.0). However, before 2000, the USHCN TOBS/adjusted series sort of match for a while but the match tails off in the earlier portions, with the GISS raw version being quite different.


hansen48.gif

So where does the GISS raw version come from? At this stage, I think that we can declare that it doesn’t come from any of the USHCN version 2 (raw, TOBS, adjsted). If it did, then the versions would match as exactly as the GHCN raw and GISS raw after 2000. So where does it come from? Another stupid climate science guessing game, although hopefully it will solved in a shorter time than the unsolved MBH99 confidence intervals.

Ruedy’s letter has opened up the possibility of really obsolete data being used - I hadn’t thought to look at really obsolete data. I browsed through some obsolete data in connection with Swindle - who would have thought that we’d be doing so again. Two possibilities spring to mind: (1) maybe he’s using something from USHCN version 1; this is online, but I don’t think that the dates are right. (2) Maybe there’s an earlier USHCN version 2 that’s been overwritten (3) maybe he’s using an old GHCN version before 2000. Maybe none of the above - hey, it’s climate science.
==== END OF POST ====



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