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» A Classic Tale of Global Warming Alarmism

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» Agriculture: Tropical Cyclones are Welcome Visitors

» Sea Level Acceleration: Not so Fast

» Hansen Is Wrong

» Earth’s Carbon Sink Still Strong and Growing

» Wild Speculation on Climate and Polar Bears

» Illiteracy at NASA

» The Heat Was On—Before Urbanization and Greenhouse Gases

» What’s to Blame for the Rains on the Plains?

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NewsBusters - Global Warming

» CNN's Blitzer: 'I Don't Remember' Biden's Law School Plagiarism

» CNN's Chetry: 'Please Tell Me It's Not Lipstick Again'

» MRC Report Asks: Why No Fairness Doctrine for PBS?

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Science and Public Policy Institute

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Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group

» Roger Pielke Sr. is now on Twitter!

» 2012 Climate Science Weblog in Review by Dallas Jean Staley – A Guest Post

» The Weblog Is Retiring

» Publication Of “Reply to “Comment On ‘Ocean Heat Content And Earth’s Radiation Imbalance. II. Relation To Climate Shifts’ ” by Nuccitelli Et Al. By Douglass and Knox 2012

» Q&A From A Group Of Retired NASA Personnel And Associates

» The Importance of Land Use/Land Practices On Climate – A Perspective From Jon Foley

» Interview With James Wynn In The English Department At Carnegie Mellon University

» University Of Alabama At Huntsville October 2012 Lower Tropospheric Temperature Analysis

» USA Election Day 2012

» New Paper “Climatic Variability Over Time Scales Spanning Nine Orders of Magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch Cycles With Hurst–Kolmogorov Dynamics” By Markonis And Koutsoyiannis

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» Ruling out high deflation scenarios

» Exponent’s Transients: Bodge or Botch?

» NFL Officials Over-Inflated Patriot Balls

» More on Deflategate

» Deflategate and Errors in the Wells Report

» Implications of recent multimodel attribution studies for climate sensitivity

» Scientific American article: “How to Misinterpret Climate Change Research”

» Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 3

» Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 2

» Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 1

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Watts Up With That?

» 2°C or not 2°C–that is the question

» An Ecologist’s Perspective on Pope Francis’s Encyclical Letter

» Oddly, ‘Nobel prize winner’ Michael Mann was not invited to sign The Mainau Declaration for climate protection

» A sad commentary on global warming alarmism: Science says one thing, scientists another

» That Didn’t Take Long: North & South Carolina Shark Attacks Blamed on Global Warming

» New Pew Center study finds global warming to be a mostly political issue

» El Niño begins to curtail the Pause

» When EPA worries about regulating puddles, it has gone too far

» One-sided science ignores the fact that ‘Sea ice is not a stable habitat for polar bears’

» About the Fourth of July and ISIS – from a friend who is a police officer, and a ‘spook’

» A Physician’s Perspective on the EPA’s “Data Derangement Syndrome”

» Claim: Universe to end with a ‘big rip’ where ‘atoms are ripped apart’

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Global Warming News

» IER Study: Existing Coal Much Less Costly than New Gas, Wind

» EPA’s Climate Action Flim-Flam Report

» Why the Ratepayer Protection Act Is Worthy

» Computer-Aided Sophistry: My Power Point on the Social Cost of Carbon

» Sowing Local Opposition to COP-21 in Paris

» Pope Francis’s Climate Encyclical: Help Poor People by Dismantling Industrial Civilization

» How to Rebut the Coming Wave of Tasteless Green TV Ads Defending Congress’s Bipartisan Effort to Check EPA (BONUS BLOGS: “Niskanen Center’s Unreasonable Case for Carbon Tax” & “Progressives’ Insincere Response to Pope”)

» Does EPA’s Clean Power Plan Endanger Manatees?

» Renewable Fuel Standard: Can EPA Regulate America Beyond the ‘Blend Wall’?

» Cooler Heads Digest 12 June 2015

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Fox News - Climate Change Stories

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Michelle Malkin - Enviro-Nitwits

» Going green: Obama and Bill Nye’s Earth Day fuel-fry cost taxpayers a cool million

» Holy hypocrisy and hot air

» EPA chief wants to help ‘climate deniers’ be ‘normal’

» Friday lunacy dump: Obama admin says EPA’s new truck emission regs will make shipping costs go down

» G7 agrees to control earth’s temperature but remains split on if Superman could beat up Batman

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DailyTech Michael Asher`s blog

» Will the Real Antarctica Please Stand Up?

» Global Warming May Decrease Hurricanes, Research Suggests

» Japanese Report Disputes Human Cause for Global Warming

» Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979

» A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the (Climate) Forum

» Climate Report Downgrades Ice Loss; Media Reports Opposite

» Princeton Physicist Calls Global Warming Science "Mistaken"

» Defying Predictions, Sea Level Rise Begins to Slow

» Electric Car Sales in Freefall; Industry Risks Collapse

» Glaciers in Norway Growing Again

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C3 - Climate Cycles Change

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CATO - Global Warming

» Will the Supreme Court Save America from the 'Greek Disease?'

» Washington's Role in Puerto Rico's Mess

» The Other Danger of a 'Grexit'

» Republicans Amid Changing Opinions on Social Issues

» It's Time for the Blaine Amendment to Go

» Toss South Korea off America's Defense Dole: Presidents Obama and Park Should End Military Welfare

» Government Debt: Jefferson and Gallatin Were Right

» Uber Execs Arrested in France after Luddite Protests

» Export-Import Bank Closes: Kill Subsidies to Cut Federal Liabilities, Promote Economic Fairness

» Why US Allies Are Happy to Join China's AIIB

» Generous with Someone Else's Money

» Greece, Euro Stagger toward the Brink: How Will It all End?

» How Many More Greek Tragedies?

» The New Front in the Global War on Drugs

» Six Humpty Dumptys Playing Calvinball

» Scalia's Obamacare Argument Is Stronger than Roberts'

» Top Dozen Villains in Greek Soap Opera: Who Is to Blame as Greece and Euro Stagger toward the Brink?

» Justice John Roberts's Obamacare Decision Is an Orwellian Mess

» Taper Talk, and the $10 Bill

» Libertarians Have Long Led the Way on Marriage

» Shortcomings Undercut Message of Encyclical

» Disclosure Rules Are the Wrong Way to Push Social Change

» How China and the United States Can Learn to Get Along

» Washington Confronts Russia over Ukraine: Yet Europeans Won't Protect Themselves from Vladimir Putin

» The New Saudi-Russian Axis: Should America Worry?

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CanadaFreePress - Global Warming

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Date published: Sun, 05 Jul 2015 07:35:19 +0000
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»The Greek Tragedy: Will We Heed the Warning?
Caution: For those who think I should stick to science, turn your eyes away now. When my daughter st ...
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Portions of up to ten plains states are covered by smoke this morning from hundreds of wildfires now ...
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An unusually warm and dry spring has led to widespread wildfire activity in Alaska, with over 260 wi ...
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With 5/12 (41.7%) of the votes counted, John Christy and I are now prepared to call 2015 as the winn ...
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I’ll be on tommorow’s Stossel Show (Fox Business Channel, 8 p.m. EDT Friday), where John ...
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Date published: Fri, 03 Jul 2015 16:22:42 +0000
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»Manual Adjustments in the Temperature Record
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This issue will be familiar to anyone who has spent time with temperature graphs.  We can ask oursel ...
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Date published: Mon, 09 Feb 2015 17:37:18 +0000
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Date published: Mon, 29 Jun 2015 22:11:06 +0000
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»Ruling out high deflation scenarios
Further to my series of posts on Deflategate, reader chrimony observed that my statistical analysis ...
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»Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 2
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Date published: Sun, 05 Jul 2015 01:37:36 +0000
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More Climate Deceptions And False IPCC Claims by Dr. Tim Ball

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Author Post
Denny
Sun May 08 2011, 02:42PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178


In his book True Enough: Learning to live in a Post-Fact Society, Farhad Manjoo claims:

Facts no longer matter. We simply decide how we want to see the world and then go out and find experts and evidence to back our beliefs.


I am not sure this is a modern phenomenon. There are more experts and evidence available, but people always seek confirmation of their prejudice. Expectation of a positive response is jarred when the answer is no. Consider what happens when you ask someone to pass the salt and the answer is no. At a conference of elected officials I was asked, “What is the one piece of advice you would give us?” I replied, “Stop hiring the consultants that tell you what you want to hear.” They responded with silence, so I added, “But that is not what you wanted to hear.”

The “post-fact society” is very active with environmental and climate issues. The media, which has generally abandoned the concept of fair and balanced, amplifies it. There’s a constant search for examples to buttress the idea that global warming and climate change are caused by humans. Even after evidence is proven inaccurate, inappropriate, or wrong, the idea is pushed and new ‘facts’ found. Central requirements are to blame humans for the change and imply planetary destruction will result.

A Change Of Gases

Methane (CH4) was considered a more evil greenhouse gas before CO2 dominated the climate change spotlight. Many segments of society were blamed and bullied, but none more so than cattlemen. It was a two-pronged attack: cows were producing methane that caused runaway global warming and beef was killing you with fat and cholesterol. Master of alarmism Jeremy Rifkin’s ludicrous 1994 book Beyond Beef: The Rise and Fall of the Cattle Culture combined the attacks.

Before cows took all the blame, other sources were identified each with increasing output because of human activities. A 1982 paper in Science claimed termites were increasing in number because of bush and forest clearing. However, it wasn’t long before a calculation error was exposed and the termites were forgotten. The beaver briefly replaced them. Increased wetlands caused by reduced trapping caused populations to explode. Potential sources of methane disaster, such as thawing permafrost, occur occasionally as alarmists and media perpetuate fears of environmental collapse.

Methane was the focus occasionally in the last 30 years. Reports of methane bubbling up in the Arctic Ocean have triggered a new spate of articles. Most stories are menacing by implication:

Far more of the greenhouse gas methane is seeping from seabed deposits in the Arctic shelf into the atmosphere than previously thought.


To its credit, a New Scientist article says,

The trouble is, nobody knows if the Arctic emissions are new, or indeed anything to do with global warming.


More importantly, they have no clue how much there is:

Estimates of how much is out there are vague. There could be anywhere between 500 to 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon in the hydrates and another 7.5 to 400 gigatonnes in the permafrost.


It’s not surprising, because all greenhouse gas numbers are very crude estimates for each source.

Reports of methane leaks are not new. Claims that global warming was thawing permafrost are misleading and out of context. Overall, the world has warmed since the last Ice Age, beginning 18,000 years ago. Ice melted, permafrost thawed, and sea levels rose throughout most of that time. In fact, the evidence shows the rate of all these activities have slowed in recent times.

The general trends are not smooth and punctuated by frequent sudden events. Many scientific articles report sudden large releases of methane from the ocean floor. They are part of the clathrate gun hypothesis that claims sudden releases are triggered by sea temperature increases. This is now generally rejected as an explanation for sudden past warming events.

Methane clathrates are a unique form of deposit where methane is contained within the crystal structure of water to form a solid. They occur in large deposits under the oceans and new areas are reported all the time. Many see the vast energy potential, but this only triggers concerns of environmental damage.


More IPCC Omissions and Commissions of Deception


So what is the methane story? Figure 1 shows Singers estimates of the percentage of greenhouse gases.




Figure 1: Total percentage of greenhouse gases

Methane is 0.00017% of all atmospheric gases, and only 0.36% of the total greenhouse gases. Like CO2, they have inflated the warming potential by claiming it is 20 times more effective than CO2. Despite this, it can’t be very important because Andrew Weaver, Lead Author of the IPCC chapter on computer modeling says,

[Methane] was not considered in any of the predictions at all.


That doesn’t stop the fear-mongering:

But one thing is certain: The fact it hasn’t been factored into previous global warming predictions means forecasts even as recent as the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are too conservative
.

It’s a frightening remark, but not as the author intended. If it isn’t factored in, then it means all previous estimates of greenhouse effects are wrong and the effect of other variables including CO2 are overestimated.

But the problem is even worse. They don’t know how much there is regionally, in total, or the amount of change over time. As the Royal Society notes,

Understanding the atmospheric CH4 budget remains limited by large uncertainties in the individual magnitudes and spatial–temporal variability of sources at both regional and global scales.


While the IPCC did not include methane in their computer models, they did predict a continued rise. Claims of dramatic increases of methane since 1750 parallel the false claims of increased CO2 included predictions of continued increase. But they were as wrong with these as they were with temperature predictions as Figure 2 shows.




Figure 2: Actual Methane Levels Compared to IPCC predictions (Source)

Despite this, cattlemen and all livestock producers were blamed completely without justification. It was a classic example of a post-fact belief. Only half the formula for animal-sourced methane was considered because declines in bison, elephant, and many other ruminant populations, though regrettable, were not deducted. Nothing was said about the 283 million cows in India.

Equally confusing is the fact that the rate of change of methane levels has declined over the last 24 years (Figure 3):




Figure 3: Changing methane concentrations (Source)

Exploitation of methane is a classic example of Manjoo’s thesis that facts are not important in the Post-Fact society. All the components of the pursuit of an idea at all costs are involved. Facts are chosen and distorted to promote the idea that humans are causing global warming and climate change, all potentially destroying the planet. Other facts are studiously ignored. Sadly, there is no shortage of experts to bolster the claims, and the mainstream media are too willing to amplify and spread the fear and falsity.


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