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» Wild Speculation on Climate and Polar Bears

» Illiteracy at NASA

» The Heat Was On—Before Urbanization and Greenhouse Gases

» What’s to Blame for the Rains on the Plains?

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NewsBusters - Global Warming

» CNN's Blitzer: 'I Don't Remember' Biden's Law School Plagiarism

» CNN's Chetry: 'Please Tell Me It's Not Lipstick Again'

» MRC Report Asks: Why No Fairness Doctrine for PBS?

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Science and Public Policy Institute

» Historic Trends in Global Sea Level

» Antarctic Sea Ice Trends

» Effects of Ocean Acidification and Warming on Corals (Laboratory Studies)

» Interactive Effects of C02 and Salinity on Plants

» Atmospheric C02 Enrichment: Boon or Bane of the Biosphere?

» Climate Model Inadequacies (Sea Ice)

» A C02-Enriched World of Worms

» Mammals in a C02-Enriched and Warmer World

» Climate Model Inadequacies of Earth's Radiative Budget

» Interactive Effects of C02 and Ozone on Birch Trees

» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Crustaceans

» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Bivalves

» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Bacteria

» Observed Climate Change and the Negligible Global Effect of Greenhouse-gas Emission Limits in the State of Utah

» Experimental Artifacts of Free-Air-C02-Enrichment (FACE) Studies

» The Extinction Risk for Stationary Plants

» Benefits of Atmospheric C02 Enrichment on Strawberries

» Forest Growth Responses to Increasing Temperatures

» Stop Climate Fear Mongering

» Was 2014 the Warmest Year on Record? No, It Wasn't...

» Problems with Model Predictions of Species Extinctions

» The Influence of C02 on Plant Antioxidants

» Health Effects of Hot vs. Cold Temperatures in Asia

» Coral Reef Responses to Temperature and Stress: Thermal Adaptation

» Forest Growth Response to C02

***
Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group

» Roger Pielke Sr. is now on Twitter!

» 2012 Climate Science Weblog in Review by Dallas Jean Staley – A Guest Post

» The Weblog Is Retiring

» Publication Of “Reply to “Comment On ‘Ocean Heat Content And Earth’s Radiation Imbalance. II. Relation To Climate Shifts’ ” by Nuccitelli Et Al. By Douglass and Knox 2012

» Q&A From A Group Of Retired NASA Personnel And Associates

» The Importance of Land Use/Land Practices On Climate – A Perspective From Jon Foley

» Interview With James Wynn In The English Department At Carnegie Mellon University

» University Of Alabama At Huntsville October 2012 Lower Tropospheric Temperature Analysis

» USA Election Day 2012

» New Paper “Climatic Variability Over Time Scales Spanning Nine Orders of Magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch Cycles With Hurst–Kolmogorov Dynamics” By Markonis And Koutsoyiannis

***


» Did McNally Inflate One Football in the Washroom?

» Letter to Daniel Marlow on Exponent Error

» Exponent’s Trick to Exaggerate the Decline

» Who “Told” Exponent Not to Consider Switching Scenario?

» Goodell and Deflategate Science

» Raymond Bradley and the Grand Old Duke of York

» Ruling out high deflation scenarios

» Exponent’s Transients: Bodge or Botch?

» NFL Officials Over-Inflated Patriot Balls

» More on Deflategate

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Watts Up With That?

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Global Warming News

» Clean Energy Incentive Program: New Unlawful Element in EPA’s Power Plant Rule?

» Rivers of Gold and Energy Poverty

» Keystone XL Review Five Times Longer than Average — AP

» Guest Post: Primer on Administrator McCarthy’s Talk Tomorrow on “The Promise of the Clean Power Plan”

» Gasoline or Ethanol: Which Is More Polluting?

» EPA’s Colossally Costly Power Plan Fulfills Obama’s Campaign Promise

» EPA’s Power Sector Carbon Rules: Are They Legal?

» Clean Power Plan: Reactions to EPA’s Preview “Fact Sheet”

» Hearing Shines Light on Social Cost of Carbon Sophistry

» EPA’s Climate Action Flimflam Report, Part 2

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Fox News - Climate Change Stories

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Michelle Malkin - Enviro-Nitwits

» What is Obama’s top population control freak hiding?

» Obama torches 20,000 gallons of gas to warn that ‘fossil fuel interests’ are conspiring against ‘clean energy’

» Head of EPA: Obama’s Clean Power Plan will hit low-income minorities hardest, but they’ll get ‘incredible savings’ by 2030

» Obama’s toxic Environmental Pollution Agency: Sexual predators, toxic dumps & data stonewalls

» Dem Rep’s proof of global warming refuted using same super-scientific method

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DailyTech Michael Asher`s blog

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C3 - Climate Cycles Change

» Climate FactCheck: 12 Reasons Why Obama's Global Warming Hysteria Is Simply Absurd

» John Cook of Univ. of Queensland & Skeptical Science ('SS') Does Identity Theft Of Luboš Motl, A Theoretical Physics Scientist

» Climate Fraud: NASA's Recent Global Warming "Corrections" Equal A +95.0°C Per Century Trend

» Your Govt At Work: NOAA Is Now Reporting That U.S. Has Been Cooling Since 1994

» The Faux-Sɔıǝuɔǝ of Global Warming: Documenting NOAA's Temperature Fabrications

» Global Cooling? Per NOAA, 5-Year Average U.S. Temps Cooled At -1.3°F/Century Trend

» Climate FactCheck: CO2 Emissions Growth Has No Impact On Atmospheric CO2 Growth

» Connect-The-Dots? For The Rapid CO2 Growth & "Accelerating" Global Warming You Can't

» Those Stubborn Facts: Bill Gates Confirms Analysis of Google Experts - Renewable Energy Is Failed Solution

» Consensus Quackery: 30+ Years Experts Push Bad Science & The Public Pays

» Settled Climate Science...Really? Research Finds Ocean Currents More Powerful Than CO2

» More Climate Reality: Uh-Oh, Nebraska Doesn't Do Global Warming

» Remember When Experts Said Modern Climate Warming Was "Unprecedented"?

» FactCheck: The Pope's Climate Doomsday & The IPCC's Expert Climate Models Versus Science Reality

» Per NOAA: The May 2015 Dataset Confirms 20 Years of Global Warming 'Pause' In U.S.

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More Climate Deceptions And False IPCC Claims by Dr. Tim Ball

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Author Post
Denny
Sun May 08 2011, 02:42PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178


In his book True Enough: Learning to live in a Post-Fact Society, Farhad Manjoo claims:

Facts no longer matter. We simply decide how we want to see the world and then go out and find experts and evidence to back our beliefs.


I am not sure this is a modern phenomenon. There are more experts and evidence available, but people always seek confirmation of their prejudice. Expectation of a positive response is jarred when the answer is no. Consider what happens when you ask someone to pass the salt and the answer is no. At a conference of elected officials I was asked, “What is the one piece of advice you would give us?” I replied, “Stop hiring the consultants that tell you what you want to hear.” They responded with silence, so I added, “But that is not what you wanted to hear.”

The “post-fact society” is very active with environmental and climate issues. The media, which has generally abandoned the concept of fair and balanced, amplifies it. There’s a constant search for examples to buttress the idea that global warming and climate change are caused by humans. Even after evidence is proven inaccurate, inappropriate, or wrong, the idea is pushed and new ‘facts’ found. Central requirements are to blame humans for the change and imply planetary destruction will result.

A Change Of Gases

Methane (CH4) was considered a more evil greenhouse gas before CO2 dominated the climate change spotlight. Many segments of society were blamed and bullied, but none more so than cattlemen. It was a two-pronged attack: cows were producing methane that caused runaway global warming and beef was killing you with fat and cholesterol. Master of alarmism Jeremy Rifkin’s ludicrous 1994 book Beyond Beef: The Rise and Fall of the Cattle Culture combined the attacks.

Before cows took all the blame, other sources were identified each with increasing output because of human activities. A 1982 paper in Science claimed termites were increasing in number because of bush and forest clearing. However, it wasn’t long before a calculation error was exposed and the termites were forgotten. The beaver briefly replaced them. Increased wetlands caused by reduced trapping caused populations to explode. Potential sources of methane disaster, such as thawing permafrost, occur occasionally as alarmists and media perpetuate fears of environmental collapse.

Methane was the focus occasionally in the last 30 years. Reports of methane bubbling up in the Arctic Ocean have triggered a new spate of articles. Most stories are menacing by implication:

Far more of the greenhouse gas methane is seeping from seabed deposits in the Arctic shelf into the atmosphere than previously thought.


To its credit, a New Scientist article says,

The trouble is, nobody knows if the Arctic emissions are new, or indeed anything to do with global warming.


More importantly, they have no clue how much there is:

Estimates of how much is out there are vague. There could be anywhere between 500 to 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon in the hydrates and another 7.5 to 400 gigatonnes in the permafrost.


It’s not surprising, because all greenhouse gas numbers are very crude estimates for each source.

Reports of methane leaks are not new. Claims that global warming was thawing permafrost are misleading and out of context. Overall, the world has warmed since the last Ice Age, beginning 18,000 years ago. Ice melted, permafrost thawed, and sea levels rose throughout most of that time. In fact, the evidence shows the rate of all these activities have slowed in recent times.

The general trends are not smooth and punctuated by frequent sudden events. Many scientific articles report sudden large releases of methane from the ocean floor. They are part of the clathrate gun hypothesis that claims sudden releases are triggered by sea temperature increases. This is now generally rejected as an explanation for sudden past warming events.

Methane clathrates are a unique form of deposit where methane is contained within the crystal structure of water to form a solid. They occur in large deposits under the oceans and new areas are reported all the time. Many see the vast energy potential, but this only triggers concerns of environmental damage.


More IPCC Omissions and Commissions of Deception


So what is the methane story? Figure 1 shows Singers estimates of the percentage of greenhouse gases.




Figure 1: Total percentage of greenhouse gases

Methane is 0.00017% of all atmospheric gases, and only 0.36% of the total greenhouse gases. Like CO2, they have inflated the warming potential by claiming it is 20 times more effective than CO2. Despite this, it can’t be very important because Andrew Weaver, Lead Author of the IPCC chapter on computer modeling says,

[Methane] was not considered in any of the predictions at all.


That doesn’t stop the fear-mongering:

But one thing is certain: The fact it hasn’t been factored into previous global warming predictions means forecasts even as recent as the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are too conservative
.

It’s a frightening remark, but not as the author intended. If it isn’t factored in, then it means all previous estimates of greenhouse effects are wrong and the effect of other variables including CO2 are overestimated.

But the problem is even worse. They don’t know how much there is regionally, in total, or the amount of change over time. As the Royal Society notes,

Understanding the atmospheric CH4 budget remains limited by large uncertainties in the individual magnitudes and spatial–temporal variability of sources at both regional and global scales.


While the IPCC did not include methane in their computer models, they did predict a continued rise. Claims of dramatic increases of methane since 1750 parallel the false claims of increased CO2 included predictions of continued increase. But they were as wrong with these as they were with temperature predictions as Figure 2 shows.




Figure 2: Actual Methane Levels Compared to IPCC predictions (Source)

Despite this, cattlemen and all livestock producers were blamed completely without justification. It was a classic example of a post-fact belief. Only half the formula for animal-sourced methane was considered because declines in bison, elephant, and many other ruminant populations, though regrettable, were not deducted. Nothing was said about the 283 million cows in India.

Equally confusing is the fact that the rate of change of methane levels has declined over the last 24 years (Figure 3):




Figure 3: Changing methane concentrations (Source)

Exploitation of methane is a classic example of Manjoo’s thesis that facts are not important in the Post-Fact society. All the components of the pursuit of an idea at all costs are involved. Facts are chosen and distorted to promote the idea that humans are causing global warming and climate change, all potentially destroying the planet. Other facts are studiously ignored. Sadly, there is no shortage of experts to bolster the claims, and the mainstream media are too willing to amplify and spread the fear and falsity.


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