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Science and Public Policy Institute

» Mammals in a C02-Enriched and Warmer World

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» Onward Marches the Great Pause

» Response of Various Marine Animals to Ocean Acidification and Warming

» FACE Experiments and Grassland Species

» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Fish

» Response of Fish to Ocean Warming

» Additional Grounds for Rejecting Biofuels

» The Global Medieval Warm Period

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Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group

» Roger Pielke Sr. is now on Twitter!

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» The Weblog Is Retiring

» Publication Of “Reply to “Comment On ‘Ocean Heat Content And Earth’s Radiation Imbalance. II. Relation To Climate Shifts’ ” by Nuccitelli Et Al. By Douglass and Knox 2012

» Q&A From A Group Of Retired NASA Personnel And Associates

» The Importance of Land Use/Land Practices On Climate – A Perspective From Jon Foley

» Interview With James Wynn In The English Department At Carnegie Mellon University

» University Of Alabama At Huntsville October 2012 Lower Tropospheric Temperature Analysis

» USA Election Day 2012

» New Paper “Climatic Variability Over Time Scales Spanning Nine Orders of Magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch Cycles With Hurst–Kolmogorov Dynamics” By Markonis And Koutsoyiannis

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» Scientific American article: “How to Misinterpret Climate Change Research”

» Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 3

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» Jones and Dixon Refute Conspiracy Theorist Lewandowsky

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» How Weaver Ignored Corcoran’s Segue

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Watts Up With That?

» Uh, oh: Looks like Lewandowsky and Oreskes will be going after the AGU now for admitting the ‘hiatus’ exists

» What would it take to limit climate change to 1.5°C? (answer: more than they can get support for)

» Friday Funny – the horror of rising sea levels in context

» Why delegating comprehension of climate science is a bad idea

» Some pushback against Obama’s ridiculous climate remarks at the Coast Guard commencement

» An inconvenient truth from medical research: cold is far worse than global warming at killing people

» Claim: New evidence has linked Arctic warming with severe weather in countries including the UK and US.

» SOLD OUT: Skeptic book ‘Climate Change the Facts’ (but one signed copy is available)

» Does the ‘leader’ of the free world really know so little about climate?

» Registration is now open for the Tenth International Conference on Climate Change

» Claim: Global warming improves urban air quality

» Why Skeptics Should Encourage Energy Use from Fossil Fuels Where Economically Justified

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Global Warming News

» EU Climate Policy: Unsustainability Update

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» Is Ethanol a Green Fuel?

» Independent Satellite Records Agree: Little to No Global Warming over Past 18 Years

» Clean Power Plan “Co-Benefits” Are as Insipid as the Rule’s Direct Benefits (i.e., the idiotic social cost of carbon)

» Clean Power Plan Litigation: Thoughts on Ripeness and Standing

» Forgotten Document Sheds New Light on Legality of EPA Climate Rules

» EPA Administrator McCarthy: A “Carbon Conscious Economy” Is Inevitable, and EPA Will Make Sure It Happens

» The Unbearable Lightness of Obama’s *Passion* for Mitigating AGW

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Fox News - Climate Change Stories

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Michelle Malkin - Enviro-Nitwits

» Obama: U.S. not losing to ISIS, but definitely getting pushed around by ‘climate change’

» Gore / great lakes

» Cher’d sacrifice: They don’t call ’em ‘green’ Hollywood libs for nothing

» Bernie Sanders stumbles upon first campaign slogan: No car in every garage

» Double dribblers at OFA toss up embarrassing desperation shot on ‘climate change’

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DailyTech Michael Asher`s blog

» Will the Real Antarctica Please Stand Up?

» Global Warming May Decrease Hurricanes, Research Suggests

» Japanese Report Disputes Human Cause for Global Warming

» Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979

» A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the (Climate) Forum

» Climate Report Downgrades Ice Loss; Media Reports Opposite

» Princeton Physicist Calls Global Warming Science "Mistaken"

» Defying Predictions, Sea Level Rise Begins to Slow

» Electric Car Sales in Freefall; Industry Risks Collapse

» Glaciers in Norway Growing Again

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C3 - Climate Cycles Change

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CATO - Global Warming

» 'Should We Have Waged the Iraq War?' Is Not a Gotcha Question

» Memo to Congress: Don't Do Something, Just Stand There

» Sen. Paul's Great Surveillance 'Filibuster' and What to Expect Next

» The Glaring (Ir)Relevance of Ramadi

» If You Don't Want Your Food Genetically Modified, Tell Nature to Stop It.

» Currency Manipulation Can't be Fixed by Countervailing Duties

» An Open Letter to Governor Hogan: the New Metro Lines Are Too Expensive

» Don't Confuse Tax Credits with School Vouchers

» Assessing the GOP Candidates' Plans on Poverty

» Hank Greenberg's AIG Case Might Not be Open and Shut

» The Pentagon Conned Washington … Again

» Amtrak Is No Way to Run a Railroad

» How am I Supposed to Learn Anything without a Lazy River and Wet Wall?

» Politicians Love Ribbon-Cutting

» The Increasingly Elusive Climate Consensus

» Put Harriet Tubman on the $20 Bill

» Is America about to Make a Fatal Mistake in the South China Sea?

» Five Things to Know about the Purple Line

» Rubio's Strangely Stale Foreign Policies

» Five Rules for an Age of Terrorism, Nuclear Weapons

» Take Immigration Reform Past Talking Points

» Gulf States Undermine U.S. Interests, Demand Special Favors: Washington Should Tell Whiny Allies No

» A Bad Idea: America Concluding a Defense Pact with the GCC

» Two Years after Snowden, Congress Still Legislating in the Dark

» De Blasio & Warren's New Progressive Agenda

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CanadaFreePress - Global Warming

» Jeb Bush Criticises Obama For Exaggerating Climate Change

» ‘Politically contrived nonsense’: Scientific studies, data and history refute Obama’s cl

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Thirteen Thousand Years Of Storminess In The Northeastern United States by CO2 Science

Author Post
Denny
Fri Jul 23 2010, 11:02AM
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178






Reference

Noren, A.J., Bierman, P.R., Steig, E.J., Lini, A. and Southon, J. 2002. Millennial-scale storminess variability in the northeastern Unites States during the Holocene epoch. Nature 419: 821-824.

Background

Climate alarmists loudly proclaim that anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric greenhouse gases may lead to increases in the frequency of severe storms. Hence, there is a tendency for the general public, including the media, to wonder if humanity is to blame for periodic occurrences of extreme weather; while radical environmentalists make no bones about it, claiming we are indeed responsible. But are we?

To correctly answer this question, it is necessary to know where we currently reside in the suite of natural cycles that characterize earth's climate; for as the authors of this important study describe the situation, "the existence of natural variability in storminess confounds reliable detection of anthropogenic effects." This being the case, it was their intention to provide an historical context for addressing this question.

What was done

Sediment cores were extracted from thirteen small lakes distributed across a 20,000-km2 region in Vermont and eastern New York, after which several techniques were used to identify and date terrigenous in-wash layers that depict the frequency of storm-related floods.

What was learned

The authors' data indicate that "the frequency of storm-related floods in the northeastern United States has varied in regular cycles during the past 13,000 years (13 kyr), with a characteristic period of about 3 kyr." There were four major storminess peaks during this period; they occurred approximately 2.6, 5.8, 9.1 and 11.9 kyr ago, with the most recent upswing in storminess beginning "at about 600 yr BP [Before Present], coincident with the beginning of the Little Ice Age."

The authors say that the pattern they observed "is consistent with long-term changes in the average sign of the Arctic Oscillation [AO], suggesting that modulation of this dominant atmospheric mode may account for a significant fraction of Holocene climate variability in North America and Europe." They also note that several "independent records of storminess and flooding from around the North Atlantic show maxima that correspond to those that characterize our lake records [Brown et al., 1999; Knox, 1999; Lamb, 1979; Liu and Fearn, 2000; Zong and Tooley, 1999]."

The authors also report that "during the past ~600 yr, New England storminess appears to have been increasing naturally [our italics]," and they suggest that "changes in the AO, perhaps modulated by solar forcing, may explain a significant portion of Holocene climate variability in the North Atlantic region." They further state that their explanation is appealing "because it makes a specific prediction that New England storminess should be at its greatest when Europe is cold (characteristic of the low-phase AO)," such as during Little Ice Age conditions; and they report that "comparison of our results with the other climate records [cited below], including European glacier fluctuations, suggest that, as predicted, intense storms in New England tend to occur more frequently during periods that are cooler than average in Europe [Mayewski et al., 1994; O'Brien et al., 1995; Holmes et al., 2001; Karlen and Kuylenstierna, 1996; Matthews et al., 2000]."

What it means

This study indicates that: (1) climate fluctuates significantly on a millennial timescale in a reasonably well-defined oscillatory fashion that is independent of the atmosphere's CO2 concentration but is "perhaps modulated by solar forcing," as we and a host of others have long suggested [see Climate Oscillations and Solar Effects (Climate) in our Subject Index], and (2) relatively colder climates are typically characterized by relatively stormier weather, as we also have long suggested [see Extreme Weather in our Subject Index]. The first of these observations tends to discredit the climate-alarmist claim that recent global warming is CO2-induced, in that the warming of the last century or so is but a normal part of earth's naturally-recurring millennial-scale climatic oscillation; while the second observation tends to discredit the climate-alarmist claim that global warming will lead to increases in storminess, in that increases in real-world storminess are typically associated with global cooling.

References

Brown, P., Kennett, J.P. and Ingram, B.L. 1999. Marine evidence for episodic Holocene megafloods in North America and the northern Gulf of Mexico. Paleoceanography 14: 498-510.

Hormes, A., Muller, B.U. and Schluchter, C. 2001. The Alps with little ice: evidence for eight Holocene phases of reduced glacier extent in the Central Swiss Alps. The Holocene 11: 255-265.

Karlen, W. and Kuylenstierna, J. 1996. On solar forcing of Holocene climate: evidence from Scandinavia. The Holocene 6: 359-365.

Knox, J.C. 1999. Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 439-457.

Lamb, H.H. 1979. Variation and changes in the wind and ocean circulation: the Little Ice Age in the northeast Atlantic. Quaternary Research 11: 1-20.

Liu, K.b. and Fearn, M.L. 2000. Reconstruction of prehistoric landfall frequencies of catastrophic hurricanes in northwestern Florida from lake sediment records. Quaternary Research 54: 238-245.

Matthews, J.A., Dahl, S.O., Nesje, A., Berrisford, M. and Andersson, C. 2000. Holocene glacier variations in central Jotunheimen, southern Norway based on distal glaciolacustrine sediment cores. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 1625-1647.

Mayewski, P.A., Meeker, L.D., Whitlow, S., Twickler, M.S., Morrison, M.C., Bloomfield, P., Bond, G.C., Alley, R.B., Gow, A.J., Grootes, P.M., Meese, D.A., Ram, M., Taylor, K.C. and Wumkes, W. 1994. Changes in atmospheric circulation and ocean ice cover over the North Atlantic during the last 41,000 years. Science 263: 1747-1751.

O'Brien, S.R., Mayewski, P.A., Meeker, L.D., Meese, D.A., Twickler, M.S. and Whitlow, S.E. 1995. Complexity of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice core. Science 270: 1962-1964.

Zong, Y. and Tooley, M.J. 1999. Evidence of mid-Holocene storm-surge deposits from Morecambe Bay, northwest England: A biostratigraphical approach. Quaternary International 55: 43-50


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