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» A Classic Tale of Global Warming Alarmism

» More Evidence Against a Methane Time Bomb

» Agriculture: Tropical Cyclones are Welcome Visitors

» Sea Level Acceleration: Not so Fast

» Hansen Is Wrong

» Earth’s Carbon Sink Still Strong and Growing

» Wild Speculation on Climate and Polar Bears

» Illiteracy at NASA

» The Heat Was On—Before Urbanization and Greenhouse Gases

» What’s to Blame for the Rains on the Plains?

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NewsBusters - Global Warming

» CNN's Blitzer: 'I Don't Remember' Biden's Law School Plagiarism

» CNN's Chetry: 'Please Tell Me It's Not Lipstick Again'

» MRC Report Asks: Why No Fairness Doctrine for PBS?

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Science and Public Policy Institute

» Response of Marine Macroalgae to Ocean Acidification

» Benefits of Atmospheric C02 Enrichment on Tomatos

» Benefits of Atmospheric C02 Enrichment on Maize

» Benefits of Atmospheric C02 Enrichment on Sunflowers

» Interactive Effects of C02 and Air Pollution on Wheat

» Response of Corals to Acidification: What Can Be Learned From Field Studies?

» Deserts: Are They Expanding Or Shrinking?

» Stewardship and Sustainable Development in a World of Rising Atmospheric C02

» The Response Of Enchinoderms to Ocean Acidification

» The Response of Peanut Plants to Changes in Climate and Atmospheric C02

» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Coccolithophores

» Alpine Ecosystem Responses to Rising Temperature and Atmospheric C02

» Historic Trends in Global Sea Level

» Antarctic Sea Ice Trends

» Effects of Ocean Acidification and Warming on Corals (Laboratory Studies)

» Interactive Effects of C02 and Salinity on Plants

» Atmospheric C02 Enrichment: Boon or Bane of the Biosphere?

» Climate Model Inadequacies (Sea Ice)

» A C02-Enriched World of Worms

» Mammals in a C02-Enriched and Warmer World

» Climate Model Inadequacies of Earth's Radiative Budget

» Interactive Effects of C02 and Ozone on Birch Trees

» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Crustaceans

» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Bivalves

» Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Bacteria

***
Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group

» Roger Pielke Sr. is now on Twitter!

» 2012 Climate Science Weblog in Review by Dallas Jean Staley – A Guest Post

» The Weblog Is Retiring

» Publication Of “Reply to “Comment On ‘Ocean Heat Content And Earth’s Radiation Imbalance. II. Relation To Climate Shifts’ ” by Nuccitelli Et Al. By Douglass and Knox 2012

» Q&A From A Group Of Retired NASA Personnel And Associates

» The Importance of Land Use/Land Practices On Climate – A Perspective From Jon Foley

» Interview With James Wynn In The English Department At Carnegie Mellon University

» University Of Alabama At Huntsville October 2012 Lower Tropospheric Temperature Analysis

» USA Election Day 2012

» New Paper “Climatic Variability Over Time Scales Spanning Nine Orders of Magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch Cycles With Hurst–Kolmogorov Dynamics” By Markonis And Koutsoyiannis

***


» Picking Cherries in the Gulf of Alaska

» Cherry-Picking by D’Arrigo

» Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates – update

» Bob Carter

» Appraising Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates

» Update of Model-Observation Comparisons

» COP21 Emission Projections

» Balascio et al and the Baffin Island Inconsistency

» What “Science” is “Telling Us” About Climate Damages to Canada

» Antarctic Ice Mass Controversies

***

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Global Warming News

» Satellites and Global Warming: Dr. Christy Sets the Record Straight

» UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat Announces Steps for Signing and Ratifying the Paris Climate Treaty. The Next Step Is Up To the Senate.

» Robert M. Carter, RIP

» Mandating 100% Renewable Energy: It’s About Jobs?

» Paris Agreement: Recycled “Process” Socialism

» Paris Agreement Is a Real Tiger: Lock and Load

» Climate Change Hearing: Lessons from Data vs. Dogma

» Is the Paris Climate Agreement a Treaty?

» On the Rumored Oil Exports for Wind PTC Extension Swap: It Could Be Worse

» Should GOP Leaders Trade Renewal of the Wind Production Tax Credit for Repeal of the Crude Oil Export Ban?

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Date published: Sat, 06 Feb 2016 07:15:00 +0000
Details

»UAH V6 Global Temperature Update for January, 2016: +0.54 deg C
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»After the Snowstorm: Color Satellite Views
The VIIRS color imager on the Suomi/NPP satellite provided nice views yesterday of the heavy blanket ...
»On that 2015 Record Warmest Claim
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It’s been over a year since I first found “frost flowers” growing in our backyard ...
»UAH V6 Global Temperature Update for Dec. 2015: +0.44 deg. C
NOTE: This is the ninth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old ...
»Sierra Expecting 10 Feet of Snow in Next 10 Days
With the Sierra Nevada snowpack above normal in this El Nino-fueled winter, we now enter what is usu ...
»What Causes El Nino Warmth?
Dick Lindzen suggested to me recently that this might be a good time to address the general question ...
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As reported yesterday, an enterprising fellow actually got college students to sign a petition to st ...
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El Nino is really doing a number on December winter weather this year, and as a result most of the e ...


Date published: Mon, 01 Feb 2016 19:43:34 +0000
Details

»US Average Temperature Trends in Context
Cross-posted from Coyoteblog. There was some debate a while back around about a temperature chart so ...
»Revisiting (Yet Again) Hansen’s 1998 Forecast on Global Warming to Congress
I want to briefly revisit Hansen’s 1998 Congressional forecast.  Yes, I and many others have c ...
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I cannot recommend Matt Ridley’s new article strongly enough.  It covers a lot of ground be he ...
»Manual Adjustments in the Temperature Record
I have been getting inquiries from folks asking me what I think about stories like this one, where P ...
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»Typhoons and Hurricanes
(Cross-posted from Coyoteblog) The science that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and causes some warming is h ...
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This issue will be familiar to anyone who has spent time with temperature graphs.  We can ask oursel ...
»Layman’s Primer on the Climate Skeptic Position
I am a “lukewarmer”, which means a skeptic that agrees that man-made CO2 is incrementall ...
»When Climate Alarmism Limits Environmental Progress
One of my favorite sayings is that “years from now, environmentalists will look back on the cu ...
»Why We Are Exaggerating “Extreme Weather”
I have written in article at Forbes.com called Summer of the Shark, Global Warming Edition.  It desc ...


Date published: Thu, 04 Feb 2016 20:07:17 +0000
Details

»Reprieve! Binding Paris treaty now voluntary mush
But Obama still wants to send US energy use and living standards backward CFACT.org Paris climate ta ...
»Why Bother? John Kerry Admits American CO2 Cuts Would Be Pointless
by Steve Milloy It’s 40 seconds that should turn the global warming world upside down. Secretary of ...
»UN Releases Slimmed Down Draft Outcome at COP 21
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»New Report: The Truth About China
Global Warming Policy Foundation China will talk a good game at the UN Climate Conference in Paris b ...
»China Burns Much More Coal Than Thought, Complicates COP21
New York Times BEIJING — China, the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases from coal, has been ...


Date published: Mon, 14 Dec 2015 20:54:30 +0000
Details

»Picking Cherries in the Gulf of Alaska
The bias arising from ex post selection of sites for regional tree ring chronologies has been a long ...
»Cherry-Picking by D’Arrigo
One of the longest standing Climate Audit issues with paleoclimate reconstructions is ex post decisi ...
»Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates – update
A guest article by Nicholas Lewis Introduction In a recent article I discussed the December 2015 Mar ...
»Bob Carter
I was very saddened to learn of the sudden death of Bob Carter ( here here).   He was one of the few ...
»Appraising Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates
A guest article by Nicholas Lewis Note: This is a long article: a summary is available here. Introdu ...
»Update of Model-Observation Comparisons
The strong El Nino has obviously caused great excitement in the warmist community.  It should also c ...
»COP21 Emission Projections
In the wake of COP21, I thought that it would be interesting to compare the respective pathways of C ...
»Balascio et al and the Baffin Island Inconsistency
There was some publicity this week on a paper by Young et al (Science Advances, 2015), which, accord ...
»What “Science” is “Telling Us” About Climate Damages to Canada
Just before leaving for Paris, the Canadian government, like many others,  stated that “scienc ...
»Antarctic Ice Mass Controversies
Like many others, I was interested in the recent controversy arising from findings of Zwally et al 2015 that there had been ice mass gain gain of ~112±61 Gt/year over 1992-2001 and ~82±25 Gt/year over 2003-2008.  Zwally’s findings obviously contradict a widely held contrary belief, expressed, for example, in IPCC AR5’s assertion there was “high confidence” that the […]


Date published: Sat, 06 Feb 2016 01:31:12 +0000
Details

»Response of Marine Macroalgae to Ocean Acidification
Most studies of the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on Earth’s vegetation have dealt with comm ...
»Benefits of Atmospheric C02 Enrichment on Tomatos
Nearly all crops respond to increases in the air's CO2 content by displaying enhanced rates of photo ...
»Benefits of Atmospheric C02 Enrichment on Maize
Nearly all agricultural species -- including C4 plants -- respond positively to increases in the air ...
»Benefits of Atmospheric C02 Enrichment on Sunflowers
The common sunflower (Helianthus annuus) is a large annual forb of the genus Helianthus. First domes ...
»Interactive Effects of C02 and Air Pollution on Wheat
Atmospheric CO2 enrichment typically enhances photosynthesis and biomass production in wheat (Tritic ...
»Response of Corals to Acidification: What Can Be Learned From Field Studies?
Most of the ocean acidification research conducted to date has focused solely on the biological impa ...
»Deserts: Are They Expanding Or Shrinking?
Back when the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration was approximately 340 ppm (up from a preindustrial valu ...
»Stewardship and Sustainable Development in a World of Rising Atmospheric C02
We’ve all seen the concepts acted out on television, heard them reported on the radio, and read abou ...
»The Response Of Enchinoderms to Ocean Acidification
As the air’s CO2 content rises in response to ever-increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and as mo ...
»The Response of Peanut Plants to Changes in Climate and Atmospheric C02
Nearly all agricultural crops respond to increases in the air's CO2 content by displaying enhanced r ...


Date published: Sat, 06 Feb 2016 08:12:19 +0000
Details

»Paper gold goes nuts in New York afternoon – could global warming be affecting the gold price?
While the slapdown in price just after 8am NY time is stock standard normal I can not recall a jump ...
»Another exaggerated BoM Brisbane heat forecast – turns out a one day wonder
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»Perth region breaks cold night records two mornings in a row
On 1st & 2nd Feb 2016 the Perth region has had record breaking cold mornings. See comments by U ...
»Another failed Bureau of Meteorology daytime temperature Outlook
Poor old BoM seldom takes a trick – make your own temperature maps – make your own Outlo ...
»Another article critical of the Bureau of Meteorology in The Australian newspaper
Bureau of Meteorology Needs to Open Books to Audit – full text is here Bureau of Meteorology N ...
»Senate to investigate Australia’s purchase of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
I mentioned this back on 3 Dec 2015 – submissions close 19 Feb 2016 and reporting date is 1 Ma ...
»Perth water policy disaster rolls on ignoring one obvious cheap solution
I saw this news today – The West and Our ABC – so I dropped the Minister for Water a lin ...
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Queenslanders in for heatwave, severe storms, strong surf swells in lead up to Australia Day: BOM 22 ...
»Merredin district rain history shoots hole in widely supported theory that clearing the wheatbelt caused reduction in SW WA rain post ~1975
Rainfall was lower pre WWI when the wheatbelt was mostly mallee scrub. A few years ago I wrote ...
»When New Zealand weather does not behave as IPCC compliant organizations forecast it is referred to as “mad”
A classic from the Fairfax GreenLeft NZ Herald – From heatwave to violent storms: New Zealand ...


Date published: Sat, 06 Feb 2016 01:15:35 +0000
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Finite Oil

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Author Post
David
Fri May 21 2010, 06:19PMQuote
GuestUnless you're one of the devote apostles of abiotic oil, then you weil know from your grade school teacher in Geography, that there are somethings called limited and renewable resources. Those resources like oil/coal are limited. When you take a closer look at that it means or would mean that the amount of oil on this planet is limited. If everything is burned off then, it's gone. While this not entirely true, because if we waited a couple tens of millions of years some of it would be replenished.
So if we are sitting on a finite amount of oil/coal/peat, whatever, then these reservoirs are one of the many world's carbon deposits. The others are the carbonates, the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the carbon in the biosphere. Of course, there are other sources and stashes of carbon in this world, but to keep it simple let's remain by what are considered the largest amounts. Carbonates are the stones that are formed when water and Carbon Dioxide out of the atmosphere mix with minerals like Calcium and carbonates are formed. You know hard water right. Well these carbonates when not used by the biosphere get caught in the earth's crust, these carbonates slowly reach the mantel and eventually are released as CO2 from volacnoe, hot springs, black smokers, geysers and other geological wonders. This cycle is probably one of the most important at making sure that the planet doesn't and didn't turn into a huge iceball.
The CO2 in the atmosphere is reservoir that is connected to all the others, CO2 is released and taken up by the biosphere, released and taken up by the carbonates and finally released by the burning of fossil fuels like oil/natural gas/coal. Long ago these fossil fuels were CO2 in the atmosphere were taken up by the biosphere, those plants, bacteria and animals were pushed underground in the wetlands by newer plants and animals and eventually these huge biomass reservoirs were closed off by sedimentation and over millions and millions of years, this biomass was turned into oil/coal/peat/natural gas. A lot like what will happen with out garbage dumps if we don't open them up sometime in the future.
All of the CO2 that was in the atmosphere back then is no trapped in the crust as oil/coal. It would have eventually reached the surface through natural burning off (natural coal burns, Kazachstan burning fields), release through geological events see carbonates or release through anthropogenic activities.
When oil is finite and it was earlier in the atmosphere, then that means that before life on this planet all of this CO2 was in the atmosphere. Let's take at what the atmosphere was like back then. CO2 was the main part of the atmosphere, the earth was warm, really warm and was really rainy. During this time alot of carbonates were made as would be expected but that only washed out a small part of the CO2, that was a good thing too, because the warm, wet and cloudy weather is probably one of the main reasons why life could take hold on an otherwise inhospitable rock. 3 billion years ago the earth was a different place, so too was the sun is was only 70% as strong as it is today. In fact, the sun get's stronger from year to year. So when the first life blicked the light of day, it was in a very inhospitable enviroment, but at the same time through a lack of Oxygen, something that is dangerous for all life including humans, a welcoming world for the first photosynthetic bacteria. They started taking the CO2 out of the atmosphere, and made carbon molecules and Oxygen out of it. It took almost 1 Billion years until enough CO2 was taken out of the atmosphere that the atmosphere was similiar to that today. Well, this wasn't the best thing, because the earth turned into an almost complete ice-ball for a few million years. Thank God it didn't stay like that, those bacteria died and were eaten by other bacteria and turned into CO2 again, warming up the earth again. Well after this near ice-ball experience, life went chugging along for many many years keeping an equilibrium so that we didn't run into this problem again. Of course there were asteroids and supernovae that almost wiped life off the face of this planet, but it somehow survived and kept this most important of all equilibriums going.
It kept this equilibrium by keeping trapped CO2 in the biosphere and in the crust. Every now and again the planet would get hot, more plants would grow and die and trap the CO2, the planet would cool. If an ice-age came then plants and animals would die and fewer plants would grow and the planet would warm up. Well if you know how long some of these periods took then you know that CO2 takes along time to influence the climate sometimes 100's or thousands of years.
The biggest regulator of our climate is well, mother earth/Gaia for the Greek's.
That was until we started the energy revolution, utilizing cheap fossil fuels to do the work of animals and men.
Ever since then, the level of CO2 in our atmosphere has increased along with a reduction of the biosphere. So we are at the same time warming up the earth and destroying earth's ability to regulate itself.
If I think this is as threatening as a lot of people say, no not really, but there is a chance of something going horribly wrong (might discuss this in a later post). What I do believe is that a lot of the earth's enviroment will change. Are we as a race in danger, not at all, but I do believe that due to desrtification, loss of habitat and other immense changes along with a loss of cheap energy in the form of fossil fuels, alot of the world's population will be decimated in famines, droughts, wars and other conflicts.
I think that is a high price to pay, just so that we can use cheap energy in the form of fossil fuels.
Please pardon the writing style I didn't take time to correct it.
Back to top
Denny
Fri May 21 2010, 07:56PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Finite Oil??? This is has been stated for a very long time...I mean Long Time!!!



Otherwise, David, not a bad post...yes, could use a little better structure...I know you will do better...Thanks for the posting! I hope you will continue to visit here...If you have any questions let Us know...;-)
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David
Sat May 22 2010, 06:18AMQuote
Registered Member #535
Joined: Sat May 22 2010, 06:14AM
Posts: 10
Unless you're one of the devote apostles of abiotic oil, then you well know from your grade school teacher in Geography, that there are somethings called limited and other called renewable resources. Those resources like oil/coal are limited. When you take a closer look at that it means or would mean that the amount of oil on this planet is limited. If all fossil fuels are burned off then, it's gone. While this is not entirely true, because if we waited a couple tens or hundreds of millions of years some of it would be replenished.
So if we are sitting on a finite amount of oil/coal/peat, whatever, then these reservoirs are one of the many carbon deposits of our earth. The others are the carbonates, the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the carbon in the biosphere. Of course, there are other sources and stashes of carbon in this world(the methane sitting on ocean floors and in tundras, etc.), but to keep it simple let's remain by what are considered the largest deposits. Carbonates are the stones that are formed when water and CO2 out of the atmosphere mix with minerals like Calcium and carbonates are formed. You know hard water right. Well these carbonates when not used by the biosphere get caught in the earth's crust, these carbonates slowly reach the mantel and eventually are released as CO2 from volcanos, hot springs, black smokers, geysers and other geological wonders. This cycle is probably one of the most important at making sure that the planet doesn't and didn't turn into a huge iceball.
The CO2 in the atmosphere is the reservoir that is connected to all the others, CO2 is released and taken up by the biosphere, released and taken up by the carbonates and finally released by the burning of fossil fuels like oil/natural gas/coal. Long ago these fossil fuels were CO2 in the atmosphere until they were taken up by the biosphere, those plants, bacteria and animals in the wetlands were pushed underground by newer plants and animals and eventually these huge biomass reservoirs were closed off by sedimentation and over millions and millions of years, this biomass was turned into oil/coal/peat/natural gas. A lot like what will happen with out garbage dumps if we don't open them up sometime in the future, we probably will to get at those wonderful resources we used to throw away.
All of the CO2 that was in the atmosphere back then is now trapped in the crust as oil/coal/etc.. It would have eventually reached the surface through natural burning off (natural coal burns, Kazachstan burning fields), release through geological events (see carbonates) or unnaturally through anthropogenic activities.
When oil is finite and it was earlier in the atmosphere, then that means that before life on this planet all of this CO2 was in the atmosphere or in the crust/mantel. Let's take a look at what the atmosphere was like back then. CO2 was the main part of the atmosphere, the earth was warm, really warm and was really rainy. During this time alot of carbonates were made as would be expected but that only washed out a small part of the CO2, that was a good thing too, because the warm, wet and cloudy weather and high CO2 concentration is probably one of the main reasons why life could take hold on an otherwise inhospitable rock. 3 billion years ago the earth was a different place, so too was the sun it was only 70% as strong as it is today. In fact, the sun get's stronger from year to year(may talk about this in a later post). So when the first life blicked the light of day, it was in a very inhospitable enviroment, but at the same time through a lack of oxygen, something that is dangerous for all life including humans(may also be in a post later), a welcoming world for the first photosynthetic bacteria. They started taking the CO2 out of the atmosphere, and made carbon molecules and Oxygen out of it. It took more than 1 Billion years until enough CO2 was taken out of the atmosphere that the atmosphere was similiar/not the same but similar to that today. Well, this wasn't the best thing, because the earth turned into an almost complete ice-ball for a few million years. Thank God it didn't stay like that, those bacteria died and were eaten by other bacteria and turned into CO2 again as well as the volcano activity that increased(later post), warming up the earth again. Well after this near ice-ball experience, life went chugging along for many many years keeping an equilibrium so that we didn't run into this problem again. Of course there were asteroids and supernovae that almost wiped life off the face off this planet, but it somehow survived and kept this most important of all equilibriums going.
It kept this equilibrium by keeping trapped CO2 in the biosphere and in the crust. Every now and again the planet would get hot, more plants would grow and die and trap the CO2, the planet would cool. If an ice-age came then plants and animals would die and fewer plants would grow and the planet would warm up. Well if you know how long some of these periods took then you know that CO2 takes along time to influence the climate sometimes hundreds or thousands of years.
The biggest regulator of our climate is well, mother earth/Gaia for the Greek's.
That was until we started the energy revolution, utilizing cheap fossil fuels to do the work of animals and men.
Ever since then, the level of CO2 in our atmosphere has increased along with a reduction of the biosphere. So we are at the same time warming up the earth and destroying earth's ability to regulate itself.
If I think this is as threatening as a lot of people say, no not really, but there is a chance of something going horribly wrong (might discuss this in a later post). What I do believe is that a lot of the earth's enviroment will change. Are we as a race in danger, not at all, but I do believe that due to desertification, loss of habitat and other immense changes along with a loss of cheap energy in the form of fossil fuels, alot of the world's population will be decimated in famines, droughts, wars and other conflicts.
I think that is a high price to pay, just so that we can use cheap energy in the form of fossil fuels.
This is a second draft, still not complete I might correct it again tomorrow.
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David
Sat May 22 2010, 07:10AMQuote
Registered Member #535
Joined: Sat May 22 2010, 06:14AM
Posts: 10
@ Denny, first thanks for the link.
Second, I know that alot of people talk about peak oil, and alot of people say that we are soon approaching it if not already past it.
I can certainly agree that when it comes to predicting the future, it really is an uncertain buisness. Although you must admit, that some of the connections being made in that article are more than precarious.
The truth is, and that no one denies, oil reservoirs that are easy to tap, are gone. Those that were near the surface and readily found and even started the first big oil multis (quaker state/standard) are long gone. In Pennsylvania my home state you can see the old oil derricks rusting away, the same goes for much of texas and california. Those pumps with alittle oil below the surface only get turned on when the oil price jumps up to near $100 the barrel, because otherwise they are just loosing money.
It's getting harder and harder to find oil, just look at the most recent oil catastrophe in the Gulf. A well about a mile underneath the surface on top of sedimentation zone of the Mississippi delta and in one of the most dangerous areas for ocean based drilling(hurricanes). It doesn't really get more risky than that now does it.
We are attempting to find even more deposits, even deeper and even smaller, while attempting to satiate a hunger that has grown at an almost exponential rate.
Looking at the way oil skyrocketed before the recession, and how even with decreased demand it has remained at about $70, begs the question if we have not reached peak oil have we at least plateaued. For years now the production has not increased. Of course, we could open up drilling in Alaska, which is not as big as people would lead you to believe, it's easy to get at compared with today's technology but it's production wouldn't even make a dent in oil prices, we consume too much. And so I would leave Alaska untouched and let it be that what it was once called, a strategic reserve. Who knows when we really might need it, and not just for making gas 10 cents cheaper.
Have we reached peak oil, who knows, we won't really know until oil starts getting more expensive and the production decreases, so like I said we can't predict the future, we will only really know when we are going down into the valley that we were at the top.
My opinion is that we have reached peak ouput at this price. When the price goes up we will be able to start tapping alot of wells that are right now technically/economically out of bounds or start extracting energy intensive deposits like in Texas, California and in Alberta(tar sands). The only way around peak oil might be the free market, the more expensive the energy the more people start looking for it, it's like gold.
The real question behind all of this is can our country and the western world for that matter, really afford to tap these new deposits. Will the economies be able to cope with these costs. I think it's pretty obvious, that is no. Again the free market will see that conservation and efficiency will bring more than looking for more expensive oil. You see that today, people buying hybrids, SUV's and the Hummer going extinct, wind farms popping up like daisies, the first commercial solar plant being built in the U.S.
So if these trends stick, than no we won't see peak oil but rather plateau oil. My only fear is that the free market isn't fast enough when responding to infrastructure demands especially in a globalized market. Privatized water for instance trucks water to customers rather than build pipes, because in the short run it's more profitable. Privatized electricity doesn't build new masts and lines, see what happened in the west a couple of years ago and in the greater metro area of manhattan, even in winter or after a thunderstorm.
Let's be honest our energy needs belong to our infrastructure and even if we haven't theoretically reached peak oil, I'm sure we technically haven't, we have almost certainly reached peak oil economically. I don't think consumers will be able to swallow $100-150 oil any time in the near future unless inflation takes off along with salaries.
And seeing as how infrastructure, planned infrastructure, is not a real strength of private companies, I think we might be in for a real treat if the economy starts getting better.
While I don't think your link totally misses the point I think it not only oversimplifies both sides of a complex argument, but ignores important facts of the issue. Like many who preach peak oil, this article preaches the other side of the coin. While both have certain truths in their argument, both also have certain falicies, and when earlier one side was nearer the truth now the other side is reaching the middle.
Peak oil was never a question of technology, when you take a look at my first post I attempted to explain that the earth used to have a hell of alot of CO2 back in the day, now most of that CO2 is trapped in the crust and mantel. There is probably enough oil in the crust to power our civilization for a thousand years. The question really is when will the power of a man or a horse be cheaper than the equivalent of that in oil, the answer I believe is not too far in the future.
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David
Sat May 22 2010, 07:21AMQuote
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@Denny I used the argument of finite oil, only because unless those reading the post believe that oil is finite, then they couldn't follow my argument, however if they believe in abiotic oil, then there is no way that my post could be followed as they reject the premise on which it is based. Another argument using an abiotic oil premise could come to the same conclusion but instead of finite oil, finite carbon. That is of course unless they are believers in the earth fusion hypothesis. Just a short post about this one: They believe that the center of the earth is actually a small star that produces all the elements that we need continously, so that we would never run out of carbon, oxygen, iron, etc.
I wonder if there are people here who believe in that.
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ron
Sat May 22 2010, 07:24AMQuote
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A well-written post but with some scientific errors. The warming effect of CO2 is predominately in the first 50 to 80 ppm. It is like a some sunglasses. Let's say the first pair cuts down 50 percent. Another pair doesn't take out the remaining 50 percent. It takes out half of the remaining 50. And so on and so on. Even that is inaccurate. The response of CO2 is actually logarithmic in orders of magnitude, rather than parabolic by halves.

As for land use changes, well, you have Venezuela to thank for that. They are cutting down rain forests to make room to grow corn to make ethanol so they can be independent of "oil." Also, the process of oil production in the Earth's mantle and crust is thought to be from the fossilized remains of plants and animals but that has never been proven. Carbon is carbon and it could just as easily be a process of vulcanization. I think it is within our technology and science to harvest carbon fragments and componds such as CO2 and create more oil. If all the components are still here (law of conservation of mass and energy), then we've lost nothing and merely need to reclaim it. How is burning corn any more legitimate than burning down trees for heat and cooking?

CO2 doesn't bring or hold in the heat. It feeds plants and therefore it feeds us animals that feed on plants and on animals that eat plants. As a planet warms, more CO2 is released to the atmosphere, which feeds more plants, etc. If there is a connection fo positive feedback to CO2, it is in the support of life. That is, as the planet becomes warmer, more creatures survive and these creatures exhale CO2. Also, thanks to Henry's Law (chemistry), as the oceans warm, they release CO2. CO2 concentration is a by-product of warming, not a cause of it. And the name Greenhouse Gas is a misnomer. The gases can only vary the heat exchange rate and irradiance but they cannot stop the exiting radiation or the process of convection. Even an actual greenhouse cannot stop the escape of heat through a hard barrier such as glass or plexiglass. They only slow the rate of heat exchange from inside to outside. The only other advantage of an actual greenhouse is in blocking off the wind, which helps to convect heat away.

The Earth will survive. If we ruin our food supply by burning it as fuel, we will die as a species and Nature will grow trees once again, thanks to birds and squirrels and it will grow back.

But far more creatures die in ice ages from cold, bacteria, and lack of food than in warm times of abundance and higher temperature. Your body runs a fever because heat kills bacteria. I've read of bacterial infections from Viet Nam, a veritable jungle. But I'm not hearing of rampant bacterial infections in the desert southwest.

No, I'm afraid this article is still striving to place the control of the planet in the hands of man, a rather overreaching arrogance and just not logically or experientially possible. Politics ruin the day. The Gulf Oil Spill has not reached the amount of the Exxon Valdez yet some are calling it the greatest disaster known, as justification to nationalize the oil industry. Everything becomes a reason to advance socialism.
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ron
Sat May 22 2010, 07:27AMQuote
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David, I live in Texas. My father-in-law can point to a number wells in south Texas that are sitting idle, not because it has become to difficult to get the oil. The deposits are full and often so are the storage tanks in Texas City, near Houston. No, they are locked down and idle because of the fed saying we can't process our own and must, instead, buy foreign oil, which places us at the mercy of the middle east. Hence, we get involved in wars over there to ensure the flow of oil. If we could develope our own, we could get out of the middle east to a large extent.
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ron
Sat May 22 2010, 07:57AMQuote
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Also, the price of oil is not reflective of the costs of exploration and drilling, though that does increase a small amount depending on difficulty. No, the price of oil is reflective of it being a traded commodity controlled, for now, by OPEC. Though you are well-spoken, I think that you have already reached a conclusion that leads to nationalization and more socialism and merely seek to support your ideas with the straw boss of how difficult it may or may not be to get oil. As for untapped easy wells being gone, are you aware of oil seeping from the ocean floor off the coast of California? Oil is pouring out of the ground, literally, but California does not allow drilling on its shores.

We have yet to run out of oil and we just get better at finding it.
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David
Sat May 22 2010, 11:18AMQuote
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@ron I will only speak on a few points here:
CO2 does trap heat and the effects of this can be seen in mathematical models, it either absorbs infrared emitted from the sun or emitted from the surface, this energy is either transformed into a temperature increase, increase in the kinetic energy of the molecule or re-released as a lower energy wavelength. This emission can occur in all directions so either into space or in the direction of the surface or anywhere between. When the concentration of CO2 increases then this net of molecules able to absorb infrared becomes thicker, effectively warming up the atmosphere and the surface more. I'm not aware of any model that shows a flattening of this curve at 50-80 ppm. The models that I know that take into account only CO2, meaning no water or methane and no temperature increased release, show that while the of course the highest slope at the beginning of concentration scale is, the temperature never ceases to rise up until 100 bar and 100% CO2.
In one sense it is true, every ppm at 50ppm brings more than a ppm at 380ppm in our atmosphere, but this difference is not as large as you propagate, because the absorption re-emission of solar infrared radiation in the upper atmosphere while it does contribute to this diminishing slope, must be seen in relation to the amount of infrared and visible light being emitted by our sun. Much of this visible radiation is converted to infrared on the surface, the thicker the net the less likely that this energy will be lost into space.
Of course, you're right about CO2 being a nutrient for plants and therefore vital for all life(not all but almost all), and that higher CO2 would lead to increased growth and increased capture of CO2, but at higher temperatures this falls away as Rubisco, the CO2 capturing protein and most abundant protein on the planet, has evolved for current/past temperatures, higher temperatures lead to less capture of CO2, I know you might be thinking of jungles then, but the difference being in jungles the plants have the water to cool themselves. Warming won't necessarily bring the necessary increase in water to effectively cool the plants at the new temperatures.
Alittle note to the Gulf spill, the last undersea boring island disaster was the largest in history, it was back in the seventies, I think it was spilling less than the BP rig for a year or more before they could shut it off, you can still find oil on the beaches of Cancun. I mean you have good intentions, but you seem to be discussing things I never touched on. Sorry if I don't respond to them.
If California doesn't allow drilling of the coast then I don't know what all those platforms are doing there, and drilling undersea is anything but easy, it's not like in Pa. or Tx. where you used to be able to get oil out of the ground with a shovel.
That with idle wells in Texas is not true, it's the costs of running the electric motors on the pumps that makes the oil more expensive than the cost of buying oil on the open market that's why they are idle, and for no other reason. The U.S. used to be the largest producer of oil world-wide because of Texas, but then the oil stopped coming out of the ground with pressure and needed to be pushed out.
Cost of a barrel an oil exploration go hand in hand, while the U.S. might have more restrictive rules other countries do not. The largest reservoir discovered in the last couple of decades was in Russia, it's difficult to get at and the only reason they started drilling was because the price of oil went up from the 90's low of $20, oil sands deposits are huge, but because of the energy needed to extract it, they are first economical when the price hits $100 or more. There are deep reservoirs all over the world, but because of the price involved in drilling so deep and getting the oil to the surface they first economical at a certain barrel price some are $100 some about $200.
I don't mean to be mean, but why would a company or gov't. not pump oil when the price is high enough, they lose profits and taxes and other revenue. The BP rig in the Gulf, was a test rig, that they were going to close, so that they could get the allowance to from the gov't. for commercial operations, for that you have to know how big the well is, how much pressure, quality of oil and so on.
I never reached a conclusion leading to anything, but rather asked the question can private companies of their own wish without regulations build infrastructure. Do you think private companies would build highways for the sake of it if the gov't. wasn't spending money on it. Do you think the private sector would build a sewer system, water treatment, power lines without them either being required by law to due so or by the gov't taking over that part of the infrastructure.
The gov't. on local to federal levels is there to build infrastructure, if it didn't do you think there would be anything but dirt roads and if there was asphalt you'd have to pay tolls, do you think the company would care about laying sewer lines out to your house, when they earn so little from it, do you think a private company would treat the sewer instead of just pumping into the river when there weren't laws against it. The free market doesn't do infrastructure, because it isn't profitable and there is little growth.
I'm not talking about nationalizing anything or even socialism. Get my words straight.
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Denny
Sat May 22 2010, 01:22PMQuote
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Denny Posted: Sat May 22 2010, 03:21PM

David,

May I suggest you take the "time" to listen to Dr. Richard Lindzen presentation..His presentation is a little over an hour...A very good listen!

Denny Posted: Sat May 22 2010, 03:21PM

David,

May I suggest you take the "time" to listen to Dr. Richard Lindzen presentation..His presentation is a little over an hour...A very good listen!

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David
Sat May 22 2010, 03:26PMQuote
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Although, I haven't hear this "lecture" I am sure it is quite interesting, however, I don't want to spend my time listening to a man that seems to be able to predict cloud development in a warming atmosphere. Even as Mr. Lindzen often states, there is too much uncertainty, and I'm assuming he means his models as well.
Mr. Lindzen has worked on the IPCC, has supported its conclusions, had at that time simply not supported the advice to policy makers. Through the years Mr. Lindzen has become more politized, even demonstrated his willingness to run for political office. It is at this point that one could lose respect for him, as a man of science doesn't belong in politics.
I would appreciate in the future if you would make an effort to read my posts, as in your recent posts, there seems to be no reference in your links to any theme that I spoke of, except generally in the form of global warming.
Your quoting someone here that according to Wikipedia, doesn't believe that smoking causes lung cancer. This seems to be a man that just wants to be on the other side, if he's right he'll be a hero and if he's wrong he'll already be dead before he's proven to be a nut.
Don't get me wrong some of his work was really good.
It's just his assessment of others' work not related to his research field.
He's even a person that said that humans are depleting the ozone layer.
Look I don't mind you sending me a pile of links that I can respond to but I wish you would also attempt responding to my posts.
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Denny
Sat May 22 2010, 06:31PMQuote
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Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
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David,

I'm just showing a response to what you've stated...I'm not asking for a "response".

No. 2, I would appreciate that you quit "running" your paragraphs together for it makes your statement harder to read...I thought you were going to do this...Look at the articles I post and you will see how you run an article and display it at a site...Plus, I appreciate the type being bigger for it makes the "older" generation easier to read and fun... ;-)

Anyone who uses "Wikipedia" for Climate Research is a person who is an "Alarmist" and will be recognized as such...







and a great article by James Delingpole...



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David
Mon May 24 2010, 09:36AMQuote
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I am not a climatologist, and if I were I cetainly would no everyone in the field. I would know who is reputable and who hypotheses and theories are believable, based on my own knowledge. There is nothing wrong with using wikipedia to look up info on people or subjest. It is democratic, peer-reviewed and upto date. If you describe Wikipedia as being alarmist, than it simply means, that you disagree with the scientific method and peer-review.
If this is the case then I see no reason to continue this discussion as your beliefs are fundamental and could be described as religious fervour.
You simple dismiss arguments and evidence that are unconfortable for you, instead of refuting it.
So either start refuting or I see no reason that I should waste my time with someone who doesn't understand the difference between religion and science.
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Denny
Mon May 24 2010, 04:59PMQuote
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Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
I am not a climatologist, and if I were I certainly would no everyone in the field.

Nor am I and I never claimed to be but what’s knowing “everyone” got to do with what you “perceive” , “know” and what you’ve “learned”. It’s obvious, IF you’ve taken the time to look at “both” sides of this “agenda” for that’s what this is, you would have a different opinion and conclusion. Hopefully an “open” mind…Even though it looks like I have concluded my decision it’s ONLY based on that Science is NOT “consensus” driven. Unfortunately the CAGW Issue IS “consensus driven”. True science is “never” closed in its theories. It’s always open to be proven “falsified” by any researcher that comes to conclude on different and verifiable results. This is not happening in Climate Science today and a large portion of them what to be on the “band wagon” of continuous research grants.

Even since WWII, the government has taken over our Science Institutions to their benefit and agenda…CAGW is a very good result from this conclusion.

I would know who is reputable and who hypotheses and theories are believable, based on my own knowledge.

Uhmm, based on YOUR knowledge. Very interesting considering you approve of Wikipedia in their “biased” consideration on “one sided science”. I showed you the articles where Connelly was not posting “both” sides of this issue...But you came here with “knowledge” that it isn’t. Hence, you’ve already made the decision that CAGW is correct in its nature and approve of “consensus” science...Just for what it’s worth, this Site’s Title is “Global Warming Hoax”.com I do not know what you believe in the meaning of the word “Hoax” but let’s look at the definition. In Webster’s New Dictionary the word Hoax states this:

“An act intended to trick or dupe; also: something accepted or established by fraud” unquote!

Need I say more??? This is what this site believes. Did you even go to the “about Global Warming Hoax” and see what’s stated by the owner? If you haven’t here it is:

Global Warming Hoax is about change. Mostly climate change. It should be obvious to anyone that objectively looks at the data that our planet's climate changes. It changes often, it changes dramatically, and it often changes very quickly. We all know that weather changes, we make jokes about it. Climate is simply weather over time. Ask any geologist or paleontologist about climate change and you're very likely to get a much different answer than what you'll get if you ask a modern computer model crazed climatologist. Anyone that studies the history of this planet laughs at the notion that what little climate change our planet has experienced in the past 100 years is unusual. In fact on a geological time scale the changes we've seen are quite uneventful, to the point of not even being noteworthy to a paleontologist.

GlobalWarmingHoax.com is here to give you climate change perspective. We aren't going to try to convince you that change isn't happening, it is. We aren't going to tell you the earth hasn't recently warmed, because it’s possible that it has. We aren't even going to tell you that 'climate change' is some vast left wing conspiracy, though we will point out the self-interests of many who preach it. We are going to show you climate change from a historical perspective, a common sense perspective, and above all the perspective of dissenting scientists that dare to research natural causes of climate change. We may even point out from time to time the benefits of a warmer planet (yes, there are many). In short, climate change is real; everything happening has happened many times before and above all there are natural explanations for it
. Unquote!

Yes, Natural Climate Variation does occur regularly on the hour, day, week, month, year, decade, centuries and millenniums. We are not disputing temperature has increased…but in very small increments. The issue is the “proclamation” that CO2 is the cause. Well, it isn’t. There are peer reviewed papers here at this site states this though a number of scientists. Yes, man can and does affect regional climate thru the “island heat effects” from cities and large tracks of land exposed due to farming… But I can show you a rather large list of all the proclaimed reasons CAGW is causing but you probably don’t want to see it.

There is nothing wrong with using Wikipedia to look up info on people or subjest. It is democratic, peer-reviewed and upto date. If you describe Wikipedia as being alarmist, than it simply means, that you disagree with the scientific method and peer-review.

Like I’ve stated and showed you articles where Wikipedia IS a “Biased” source in THIS field…I didn’t say others because I have, myself, used it in other fields but I carefully compare this information. Something I suspect you do not do...Yes, its peer reviewed. We have 700 peer reviewed “Realist” papers here at this site. I recommend you checking them out. Your last statement is rather “pungent” to state that I disagree with the Scientific Method. I’ll just state read the above paragraph in my response to your 2nd sentence...I’ll just make a statement by Pete Chylek. He states:

Science is the search for “truth”, the never-ending path towards finding out how things are arranged in this World so that they can work as they do. That search is “never” finished!

I could state more but I won’t since you proclaim to be proficient in Science…

If this is the case then I see no reason to continue this discussion as your beliefs are fundamental and could be described as religious fervour. You simple dismiss arguments and evidence that are unconfortable for you, instead of refuting it.

When you come here and start “talking” like you do, thru my experiences I’ve learned to be “cautious”. If you noticed how I “welcomed” you on the end of my first comment, I sensed someone who was “intelligent” and checked on your profile…uhm a Biologist. Ok, hopefully some “science” background. I was correct but just from a “different” perspective. David, you have every right to think, learn and profess what you’ve learned in your life and state such. There will be “always” someone who will refute it! You should know that…I’m just showing here another side of this so-called “fiasco” for this is what I’ve found to be thru two years of “solid” involvement.

My Specialty chosen for over thirty years is “Micro Environments”. I have learned AND applied controlled environmental Systems in residential, commercial and industrial applications. I make people FEEL good and have done it well. I’ve always kept up on Science thru most fields...I find them fascinating. And I still do with the Internet…Wish this was around when I was young. You know what they say, “Better late than Never”!

So either start refuting or I see no reason that I should waste my time with someone who doesn't understand the difference between religion and science.

Ok, since you came HERE to expose your beliefs, may I recommend that YOU propose the questions you want answered. Then either I or someone here will give you an answer. State what kind of intended answer you want! Only you can show us what you are searching for IF you are…Maybe you’ve just came here to tell us and use us for your “book” your thinking about writing. I don’t know!!! But if you don’t like our responses, then may I suggest you going to “Real Climate” where they specialize in “biased science” and “Consensus”…

I hope you have a great time trying to figure out that there IS another side to this “AGENDA”!
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ron
Fri May 28 2010, 03:42PMQuote
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David, mathematical models with arbitrary weighting that has no analog in the real world is not data. Really, man. It's not. And the model produces a "what if" projection, not a validated model of what is happening. In fact, none of the GCMs from the IPCC has turned out correct.
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