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Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group

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<< Previous thread | Next thread >>   
Global Warming is Over: Don Esterbrook posted by Charlotte Ramotswe

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Denny
Mon Dec 29 2008, 04:06PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178


In 2001 geologist Don Easterbook predicted the beginning of a period of global cooling. At a recent meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco he again predicted a period of cooling based in part on correlation between past glacial fluctuations, his area of expertise, with periods of low solar irradiance and changes in the Pacific Ocean:

“GLOBAL, cyclic, decadal, climate patterns can be traced over the past millennium in glacier fluctuations, oxygen isotope ratios in ice cores, sea surface temperatures, and historic observations. The recurring climate cycles clearly show that natural climatic warming and cooling have occurred many times, long before increases in anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 levels. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are well known examples of such climate changes, but in addition, at least 23 periods of climatic warming and cooling have occurred in the past 500 years. Each period of warming or cooling lasted about 25-30 years (average 27 years). Two cycles of global warming and two of global cooling have occurred during the past century, and the global cooling that has occurred since 1998 is exactly in phase with the long term pattern. Global cooling occurred from 1880 to ~1915; global warming occurred from ~1915 to ~1945; global cooling occurred from ~1945-1977;, global warming occurred from 1977 to 1998; and global cooling has occurred since 1998. All of these global climate changes show exceptionally good correlation with solar variation since the Little Ice Age 400 years ago.


The IPCC predicted global warming of 0.6° C (1° F) by 2011 and 1.2° C (2° F) by 2038, whereas Easterbrook (2001) predicted the beginning of global cooling by 2007 (± 3–5 yrs) and cooling of about 0.3–0.5° C until ~2035. The predicted cooling seems to have already begun. Recent measurements of global temperatures suggest a gradual cooling trend since 1998 and 2007–2008 was a year of sharp global cooling. The cooling trend will likely continue as the sun enters a cycle of lower irradiance and the Pacific Ocean changed from its warm mode to its cool mode.

Comparisons of historic global climate warming and cooling, glacial fluctuations, changes in warm/cool mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and sun spot activity over the past century show strong correlations and provide a solid data base for future climate change projections. The announcement by NASA that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) had shifted to its cool phase is right on schedule as predicted by past climate and PDO changes (Easterbrook, 2001, 2006, 2007) and coincides with recent solar variations. The PDO typically lasts 25–30 years, virtually assuring several decades of global cooling. The IPCC predictions of global temperatures 1° F warmer by 2011, 2° F warmer by 2038, and 10° F by 2100 stand little chance of being correct. “Global warming” (i.e., the warming since 1977) is over.

The real question now is not trying to reduce atmospheric CO2 as a means of stopping global warming, but rather (1) how can we best prepare to cope with the 30 years of global cooling that is coming, (2) how cold will it get, and (3) how can we cope with the cooling during a time of exponential population increase? In 1998 when I first predicted a 30-year cooling trend during the first part of this century, I used a very conservative estimate for the depth of cooling, i.e., the 30-years of global cooling that we experienced from ~1945 to 1977. However, also likely are several other possibilities (1) the much deeper cooling that occurred during the 1880 to ~1915 cool period, (2) the still deeper cooling that took place from about 1790 to 1820 during the Dalton sunspot minimum, and (3) the drastic cooling that occurred from 1650 to 1700 during the Maunder sunspot minimum. Figure 2 shows an estimate of what each of these might look like on a projected global climate curve. The top curve is based on the 1945-1977 cool period and the 1977-1998 warm period. The curve beneath is based on the 1890-1915 cool period and 1915-1945 warm period. The bottom curve is what we might expect from a Dalton or Maunder cool period. Only time will tell where we’re headed, but any of the curves are plausible. The sun’s recent behavior suggests we are likely heading for a deeper global cooling than the 1945-1977 cool period and ought to be looking ahead to cope with it.

The good news is that global warming (i.e., the 1977-1998 warming) is over and atmospheric CO2 is not a vital issue. The bad news is that cold conditions kill more people than warm conditions, so we are in for bigger problems than we might have experienced if global warming had continued. Mortality data from 1979-2002 death certificate records show twice as many deaths directly from extreme cold than for deaths from extreme heat, 8 times as many deaths as those from floods, and 30 times as many as from hurricanes. The number of deaths indirectly related to cold is many times worse.

Depending on how cold the present 30-year cooling period gets, in addition to the higher death rates, we will have to contend with diminished growing seasons and increasing crop failures with food shortages in third world countries, increasing energy demands, changing environments, increasing medical costs from diseases (especially flu), increasing transportation costs and interruptions, and many other ramifications associated with colder climate. The degree to which we may be prepared to cope with these problems may be significantly affected by how much money we waste chasing the CO2 fantasy.

All of these problems will be exacerbated by the soaring human population. The current world population of about 6 ½ billion people is projected to increase by almost 50% during the next 30 years of global cooling (Figure 2). The problems associated with the global cooling would be bad enough at current population levels. Think what they will be with the added demands from an additional three billion people, especially if we have uselessly spent trillions of dollars needlessly trying to reduce atmospheric CO2, leaving insufficient funds to cope with the real problems.

********************************************************

Don J. Easterbrook is a geologist at the Department of Geology, Western Washington University. He has authored 8 books (including the text book Surface processes and landform Prentice Hall Publishing Co., 546 p.) ) and 150 journal publications.

This article is republished from Abstracts of American Geophysical Union annual meeting, San Francisco December, 2008.

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Anonymous
Tue Dec 30 2008, 12:02AMQuote
Guestwow, that was awesome... I can't believe the ignorance of so many people in the world when it comes to issues like "MMGW"
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Denny
Tue Dec 30 2008, 12:01PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Anonymous,

It is this kind of information the Alarmists do not want everyone to hear. The Biased Media will not talk about this openly, to which, I use to see both sides in one article. That was some time ago! The Internet is the only means now that tells "Our" side effectively. Plus, Anonymous, there is a lot of Money to be had out there by the Alarmists thru Our Tax Dollars at hand...
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ron
Sun Jun 28 2009, 08:53PMQuote
Registered Member #378
Joined: Sun Jun 14 2009, 09:02PM
Posts: 431
The only power left is the power of the people. When governments fail, people take matters into their own hands. I'm not justifying that, just observing it from history. From the relatively benign American Revolution to the blood-thirsty and chaotic French Revolution.

Other countries had enacted "green" legislation and were able to recant it later. I think we can do the same. We must impress upon our legislators that if they enact this craziness, that this will be their last term in office.

If I were the big oil companies, I would pull all my lobbyists back and say, fine, get elected on your own dime. See how far that gets you.
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Saber
Tue May 04 2010, 11:26AMQuote
Registered Member #528
Joined: Mon May 03 2010, 06:51PM
Posts: 9
Well, it appears this has already been disproven.
And the warming did not stop in 1998; 1998 was an exceptionally warm year, and subsequent year have been cooler than that. But, the trend still increasing.
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Denny
Tue May 04 2010, 02:18PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Saber, you cannot "trust" what the government states! You need to do MORE research. Read this article...and followup at the 700 peer review papers.

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Saber
Wed May 05 2010, 12:22AMQuote
Registered Member #528
Joined: Mon May 03 2010, 06:51PM
Posts: 9
But, doesn't Dr. Spencer work for the government? For NASA? So his research is government research.
The link I provided is from NASA, the same place Spencer works.
I will do research into it later (read as: tomorrow). I wrote two papers today that involved a lot of research. I tried to look up stuff for this, but I'm shot, lol.
But, can you please clarify what makes a good government source and what makes a bad one. And is the AAAS safe in your mind? How about the NAS? Those are both very highly respected scientific organizations that have been around since looooong before anything about AGW was even thought of. I personally hold them in high esteem, even though I have found articles that I dont agree with ideologically, they have a very strict peer-review and will not publish articles with bad science. If something gets by them, they will post an articles that says they messed up and [blah] is not correct.
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Denny
Wed May 05 2010, 04:07PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Saber, you are correct! My comment yesterday should have said, "a majority" cannot be trusted. Sorry! I know I sound "biased" in my comments. Since I've been "partially" retired and started to do some "serious" research on CAGW, I've concluded that the science didn't quite fit. Especially when I noticed the CAGW scientist couldn't be including ALL the required info in their models..They think they have but seriously climate science is in it's "infancy". Sure, as the years have passed technology has started to "mature" to the point of looking at Climate Globally and to some degree "more precise". But Man has a very long way to go to effect Climate Globally since I've done my personal research, Saber. I commend you on how you are approaching this issue...

The AAAS is an organization I'm not familiar with. NAS is a respectable organization with "peer reviewed" work. I found this at their web site, an article about how Shapiro is going to lead a group to review the IPCC. Here:

I do not think they have any stance as they shouldn't being their position is suppose to be based on Science. Now Nature is another issue. They are slowly coming around since "ClimateGate" occurred in Nov. 2009. This is an happenstance Saber you most definitely want to study. I have posted a lot of articles on this subject. Plus there are some very good sites that help too.

It's good that you ask questions...Let us know, we are here to help!
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Lucidity
Wed May 05 2010, 04:32PMQuote
Registered Member #529
Joined: Tue May 04 2010, 07:49PM
Posts: 7
"The analysis, conducted by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, also shows that in the Southern Hemisphere, 2009 was the warmest year since modern records began in 1880."

this is only data from modern records. As the article states, these began in 1880, but it does not account for temperature changes that have been naturally increasing and decreasing for hundreds of thousands of years. The earliest data that is known (as far as I am aware) is from Antarctic Vostok Ice Core Data. Despite the fact that this is the warmest that the earth has been since at least the late 1800s, it is most certainly not the warmest summer that has occurred on our planet.



I've researched to make sure that the source was reliable, and i ended up finding Vostock Ice core data available here as well.



Denny, I don't believe that it is plausible to discredit all government data as being false. It can most certainly have errors or formulated opinions/observations, but then again all data on the internet is rather unreliable and it is up to us to decide what is able to be trusted. You are right to check other sources, but don't disregard all the data that government based programs present. After all, the Vostok Ice Core data came from the government. ;)

Even if you meant your statement to simply encourage researching further before posting, it did sound rather inconsiderate the way it was typed.

Back on the topic of the article that this thread started with, I honestly don't believe that the warming trend has stopped. I think that we still have quite a bit of warming in front of us, but after a few hundred years the earth will start cooling down. I'd love to see if I'm correct, but I'm pretty certain I'll be dead by then c:
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Lucidity
Wed May 05 2010, 04:36PMQuote
Registered Member #529
Joined: Tue May 04 2010, 07:49PM
Posts: 7
Sorry, guess i posted a little late. Denny beat me to it, but I'm glad you were able to clear up what you said
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Denny
Wed May 05 2010, 07:55PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Posted: Wed May 05 2010, 09:53PM

Hi Lucidity, congrats on coming a new member here. Yes, the temperature has gone up but in very small increases. The MAIN issue is WHAT is causing CAGW?
Check out the latest posting I did today here at GWH.com I posted the article for you below...Bob Carter is someone you want to listen to...



Also, you need to read this article....http://www.globalwarminghoax.com/e107_plugins/forum/forum_viewtopic.php?1705.post

Lucidity, I recommend strongly on going into our "forums" and read what we have...If you are new to CAGW
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Denny
Wed May 05 2010, 07:57PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Lucidity, here's the link to Bob Carter interview...



Sorry about that!!! ;-)
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Denny
Wed May 05 2010, 08:16PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Saber & Lucidity, read this article....very interesting!



and this one from William Briggs....does an excellent job on explaining....



and finally the latest in Skeptical Peer Reviewed Papers...700 of them! I had to break the article down into 5 posts! It starts here...recommend spending time here...



Hope this helps unless you have "already" concluded your opinion...
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Lucidity
Thu May 06 2010, 08:15PMQuote
Registered Member #529
Joined: Tue May 04 2010, 07:49PM
Posts: 7
Thanks, I'll have to check them out later. high school isn't all that generous with free time. I don't have a solid opinion yet, which is why I joined, and why I've been doing research on it. While I know that burning fossil fuels is damaging to the environment and air as a whole, I don't quite believe that it is responsible for global warming. We simply don't know enough about our earth to give a definite answer.

One thing I've been wondering about after thinking back to the link I posted earlier, was where all the C02 could have gone. The C02 levels and temperature seem to have changed naturally, and in a rather consistent pattern of warming an cooling. I really couldn't figure out logically how the C02 could simply disappear. Guess I'll look it up tomorrow though and see if I can find some info on it.

The worlds an amazing thing isn't it? c:
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Denny
Thu May 06 2010, 09:01PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Amanda, thanks for you insight on this issue. I appreciate you coming here to look at a side that wasn't noticiable until last Nov. when "ClimateGate" broke...A question in your statement where you said, "While I know the burning fossil fuels is damaging to the environment and air as a whole". If you are referring to "polution" then yes it can be when concentrated in medium to large cities with certain conditions...If you are referring it towards CO2 then no I have to disagree. There's NO "Empirical Evidence" that shows CO2 causing "excessive" CAGW...This is important for you to make a proper judgement on this...For if you don't, you will get caught up in the typical "Green" thought pattern that you will never get out of...

Thought you should know this...Let me or Us know here at GWH.com should you need assistance..A personal question, Amanda, if I may....Is the "avitar" you???
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Denny
Thu May 06 2010, 09:09PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Amanda,

May I also invite you to read the latest from the recent "unheard" report of our air quality...Good read...EPA doesn't want people to know...



Always good news!!! Only if ONE heards of it! ;-)
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Lucidity
Fri May 07 2010, 03:10PMQuote
Registered Member #529
Joined: Tue May 04 2010, 07:49PM
Posts: 7
haha, yah, i was referring to the pollution caused by it, not the actual C02. The avatar isn't me. I'm just a deviantart junkie.

here's the artist


I've actually been doing art for 5 years, that's probably what my major will be in college.
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Denny
Fri May 07 2010, 04:11PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Amanda, that site was very "cool"... Thanks! And "thanks" for clearing up what you meant in the above statement!
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Lucidity
Fri May 07 2010, 04:20PMQuote
Registered Member #529
Joined: Tue May 04 2010, 07:49PM
Posts: 7
Well I've read the articles you've posted and searched around the internet a bit. I don't take making decisions about my opinions very lightly, but the 'evidence' of AGW seems less and less logical the more I look into it. In fact... I seem to be finding more solid and tangible evidence that disproves it. I've been looking up a lot about the oceans effect on temperature and C02 as well, which makes it easier for me to comprehend how the climate can change over time.

The only thing that I can't seem to figure out now is how the temperatures of the oceans change over time and what effect that change has on C02 absorption.
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Denny
Fri May 07 2010, 05:25PMQuote
Registered Member #140
Joined: Sun May 11 2008, 12:38PM
Posts: 2178
Amanda, may I recommend this article! Be sure to read the comments...There's very good responses from Science of Doom (Pro-CAGW) and David (Realist) who's site your at...very good conversation..



here's another from David's Blog:
A good read...A true scientist always looks for evidence to "defeat" his Theory, Amanda. This is what I strive for but so far the Alarmists only conjure up "repeated results...Sure, there are some new papers but these Climate Scientists use the "same" bases Computer Models to "drive" their predictions...Keep this in mind, always. I would like to state that it didn't take me long to find out how much of a "hoax" the CAGW agenda was...Did you see one of todays posting's?? Check this out!



Amanda, just "more" proof on how deception, lies and corruption come from the same type of Science...because this is "proof" of how they see with ALL of the Climate Taxes applied, and only a few so far from their ultimate plan, will corrupt countries to their foundations...Scarey isn't it. And you should be if you care...

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